A majority of Australians say the carbon price’s introduction has made no difference to them, according to an Age/Nielsen poll that shows Labor slightly narrowing the opposition’s two-party lead.
Despite the small improvement, which is not statistically significant, in the ALP vote the Coalition’s lead of 56 to 44 per cent would see a 6 per cent swing to it and a Labor wipeout in an election held now.
Nearly four in 10 voters (38 per cent) said they were worse off under the carbon price and compensation package, while 52 per cent said it was making no difference. The poll found that people’s experience of the carbon tax has not so far been as bad as their gloomier expectations - in late June, just before the tax started, 51 per cent predicted they would be worse off, and 37 per cent expected no difference.
Labor’s primary vote has risen 2 points in a month to 30 per cent, and its two-party vote also increased by 2 points. The Coalition has seen a 1-point fall in its primary vote to 47 per cent and a 2-point drop in the two-party vote, in the poll of 1400 taken from Thursday to Saturday. The Greens remain steady on 12 per cent.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s approval rating has risen by 2 points to 37 per cent; her disapproval rating is down 2 points to 58 per cent. But she trails Tony Abbott as preferred PM: 43 per cent (up a point) to 48 per cent (up 2 points). Mr Abbott’s approval was steady at 39 per cent; his disapproval up a point to 56 per cent.
Ms Gillard has been relying on people’s ”lived experience” of the carbon tax to soften their attitudes.
While they are finding the experience of it not as bad as they expected, people remain overwhelmingly opposed to the carbon price. Sixty per cent (down 2 points since late June) are against it, compared with 36 per cent (up 3 points ) in favour.
Only 5 per cent say they are personally better off after the introduction of the carbon price and compensation package, despite the government’s cash splash leaving many low-income households better off.
People’s perception of how well or badly off they are after the imposition of the carbon price could change, as not everyone will have seen the impact on their energy bills yet.
Pollster John Stirton said that while the findings may appear to be a significant change from expectations expressed by voters in polls over the past year, ”this is not necessarily so.
”A majority of people are saying that so far there has been no difference. This is not the same as saying there will be no difference.” It would take some months to determine voters’ final attitudes, he said.
But the findings will give some support to those in the Gillard camp, who say she must be given more time to see how the tax plays out. On the other hand, the Rudd camp will point out there is no sign of the primary vote climbing beyond the untenable level (a point or two either side of 30 per cent) where it has been stuck for months. Victoria is Labor’s best state on primaries - it polls 34 per cent. In Queensland its primary vote is only 26 per cent, and in Western Australia 25 per cent.
When voters were asked whether the financial impact of the carbon tax had been less than they expected, more than they expected or as they had anticipated, 64 per cent said it had been as they had expected. Only 12 per cent said more than expected while another 12 per cent said less.
Labor voters were more likely to say the carbon price had made no difference to them personally (65 per cent compared to 52 per cent of all voters), and less likely to say they were worse off (21 per cent compared to 38 per cent).
In contrast, Coalition supporters were more likely than average (55 per cent) to say they were worse off and less likely to say it had made no difference to them (37 per cent). Under the government’s package those in higher income levels get only partial or no compensation.
There is also a partisan gulf on support for the carbon price. Six in 10 ALP voters support a price on carbon while only 13 per cent of Coalition backers do. A third of Labor voters are against, and 84 per cent of Coalition voters.
Australian Competition and Consumer Commission chairman Rod Sims told Channel Ten the ACCC had had fewer complaints than expected about firms wrongly blaming the carbon tax for price rises.
”I think businesses are largely doing the right thing,” he said.
