Unreleased modelling from the NSW Treasury shows the impact of the carbon tax on public transport fares would be less than 0.3 per cent, despite earlier warnings from the Premier that price rises could send people back to their cars.
A draft of a cabinet-in-confidence document called Carbon Price Impact from last month shows train fares would rise by just 0.12 per cent, bus fares by 0.29 per cent, and ferry fares by 0.21 per cent in 2012-13 if the federal government’s proposed tax came into force.
Slightly higher rises were predicted for 2019-20 but all were still lower than 0.4 per cent.
The modelling, obtained by the Herald via an upper house call for papers, was not made public, despite showing markedly lower rises than preliminary advice made public.
On July 15 the Premier, Barry O’Farrell, said in a media release the carbon tax would increase fares by up to 3.6 per cent and warned it could deter the public.
”I also fear many many Sydney commuters will turn away from public transport and get back into their cars because the carbon tax will push up fares,” he said.
Advice the Department of Transport gave the government on July 14, also obtained via the call for papers, said that, while the fare increase could be up to 3.6 per cent if the full cost was passed on, it was only likely to be a 1 per cent increase, if the present IPART methodology for calculating fares was used.
It also stated, based on research on the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics Elasticities Database, ”people have little responsiveness to the change in cost in deciding their travel mode choices”.
The opposition transport spokeswoman Penny Sharpe said yesterday the government had misled the public: ”The documents show clearly that the figures were constructed to make it look worse than it will be.”
The Premier did not back away from his original comment yesterday. ”Logic dictates that if price goes up, there’s a disincentive to use it,” he said.
A spokeswoman for the Treasurer, Mike Baird, said the government conducted comprehensive modelling on the tax. ”We stand by all of our modelling,” she said.
