A London-based think tank says the spread of democracy following the Arab Spring could be reversed because politicians are failing to help the countries involved to build resilience to economic shocks.
The group, E3G, says in a report, Underpinning the MENA Democratic Transition: Delivering Climate, Energy and Resource Security, that the G8 governments are not helping the Middle East-North Africa (MENA) region to address the threat of food and energy price shocks.
The report says climate models show that warming will happen much faster in this region than the global average. A reduction in rainfall is also likely by mid-century.
“Without a major effort to radically reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in the next ten years the region could see an average temperature rise of over 4°C by mid-century and 6-8°C by 2100”, says the report.
“This will be felt in growing seasonal extremes… The impact on rainfall is more uncertain, but a general reduction of rainfall by up to 10-30% by mid-century is expected.”
Lower rainfall will worsen the existing scarcity of water, driven by population growth, industrialisation and the depletion of aquifers, which is already acute across the region, the report says.
Food prices will increase as a major cause of economic shocks in the region and there is an immediate risk of surging prices this year because of the recent US droughts.
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