In preparation for large-scale introduction of solar photovoltaic power generation, ten Japanese utilities have jointly launched the development of technology to predict the output of solar power generation. The technology will use meteorological data to forecast solar insolation for different areas of the country and estimate power generation output. The utilities have been working on the development since November last year with the aim of creating a prototype model in two years.
Solar power generation is prone to fluctuations in output due to weather conditions, making it difficult to maintain the power supply-demand balance when introduced in large amounts. Electric utilities will be necessitated to secure reserve capacity to provide for large weather fluctuations. For the utilities to minimize the cost involved, developing a technology to accurately predict output fluctuations is considered necessary.
Meteorological models currently used in weather forecasting focus on rainfall prediction. The new technology is aimed at employing an improved model to predict insolation for the following day in different areas of the country at intervals of every 30 minutes, based on such factors as cloud height and thickness determined through satellite images and data from the Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS). It will also incorporate information on the number and distribution of solar panels to translate insolation into power generation output.
