Explainer: Why the Philippines does not have a net zero target

But 72.29 per cent of this aim is conditional, and will only be met through funding and assistance from the international community. The government has pledged to use its own resources to meet the remaining 2.71 per cent. 

The newly-published implementation plan details how the government will deliver this unconditional target, while also contributing to the partial fulfillment of the conditional goal. 

The plan is meant to either be presented to rich countries to secure funding ahead of the COP29 climate talks in November or submitted to them during the climate conference itself in Baku, Azerbaijan. 

Although the scheme indicated a specific amount of US$72 billion needed to fulfill its NDC goal, which is lacking in most propositions, it did not mention a net zero pledge, which has been eagerly awaited by observers in previous climate conferences. 

The Philippines remains the only Southeast Asian country, apart from Timor-Leste, without a formal climate target. 

But unlike Timor-Leste which only reclaimed its independence in 2002, the Philippines is a more developed economy with infrastructure and policies in place to help support its low-carbon goals.

Some observers might speculate that it is because the Philippines relies largely on fossil fuels for its electricity and is home to some of the world’s largest nickel mines, whose emissions and supply chain issues may hamper a net zero aspiration. And yet some might argue that Indonesia has a similar socio-economic profile but it has still been able to announce a net zero ambition for 2060 or sooner.

Analiza Rebuelta Teh, undersecretary at the department of environment and natural resources (second from left) says on a panel that the government is preparing a long term strategy plan that could determine if the Philippines is ready for a net zero or carbon neutrality pledge. Image: German Corporation for International Cooperation

Analiza Rebuelta Teh, undersecretary for finance, information systems and climate change at the department of environment and natural resources (DENR) said that the government is currently working on a national assessment of policies that could reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the country.

“We’re developing our long term strategy so that we’ll have a more strategic approach to climate planning, and see whether we can commit to net zero or just carbon neutrality,” Teh said in a panel on 12 September, but did not confirm if a hard target could be a result of the assessment set to be released next year. Carbon neutral refers to balancing out the total amount of carbon emissions, typically with offsets, while net zero means no carbon was emitted from the start, so no carbon needs to be captured or offset.

Eco-Business spoke to analysts of the climate action landscape in the region, and found that there could be political and scientific reasons behind this, as well as uncovered why countries that do have net zero targets may not have the means to implement them.

What is a net zero target? 

To achieve net zero emissions, countries must balance the amount of emissions produced by human activities with the amount removed from the atmosphere.

Carbon can be removed from the atmosphere through traditional approaches like growing trees or more advanced technologies like direct air capture, which scrubs carbon dioxide from the air and sequesters it underground.

All economies, whether rich or poor, need to achieve net zero by 2050 for the world to limit global temperatures within 1.5°C by the end of the century if it wants to avoid catastrophic effects of climate change, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international body for assessing the science related to climate change. 

What are the scientific reasons why the Philippines does not have a net zero target?

The Philippines government wants to take an evidence-based approach to implementing climate strategies, instead of rushing into making a net zero target, believes John Leo Algo, a climate analyst who has provided technical expertise and administrative support on projects promoting climate action in the Philippines over the past decade.

The evidence presented by the country’s greenhouse gas inventory found in the implementation plan that as of 2020, the energy sector, which includes transport and fuel use, generates the bulk of emissions. 

The mitigation strategy for this sector is to accelerate the energy transition through renewables deployment and energy efficiency. Doing so will reduce approximately 990 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (mmtCO2e) cumulatively between 2020 and 2030, but this will still not be sufficient to achieve net zero for the country, said Algo. 

The scheme likewise does not detail a transition plan for a phase out of fossil fuels, a critical factor if it wants to aspire for net zero, he added.

Instead, the country’s latest development plan forecasts natural gas as having a key role in the power sector in at least the next two decades, while nine more coal-fired power plants are set to come online within the next three years, based on data from the department of energy. 

The evidence also shows that if the forestry and other land use (FOLU) sector is activated to help remove carbon from the atmosphere, it will only eliminate about 10 per cent of the total emissions.

The government favours emissions avoidance of the most polluting sectors over emissions removal because “avoidance represents a higher greenhouse gas mitigation impact than projects or interventions that simply reduce emissions” like absorption through carbon sinks – a role that forests play – according to the NDC implementation plan authored by DENR and the Climate Change Commission (CCC). 

But Algo said net zero cannot be achieved without a strong emphasis on both avoidance and removals.

“We should not wait until our forests become net emitters before we fully include them in the national mitigation picture. Our country would be more capable of reaching net zero if our forests are protected much better and can be restored,” he told Eco-Business. 

What are the political reasons?

The Philippines government is hesitant to decouple from fossil fuels and extractives because these sectors have political implications, said Ryan Roset, a senior legal fellow at the Legal Rights and Natural Resources Center, a Philippine environmental rights group.

“A lot of our policymakers have historical involvement in industries which are linked to the exploitation of natural resources. If you’re talking about that kind of reality, you cannot but think that it will affect their decision making process,” Roset told Eco-Business.

Speaker of the House Martin Romualdez (second from right) sits with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr (far right), defense secretary Gilberto Teodoro and Armed Forces of the Philippines chief of staff Romeo Brawner as they watch a demonstration of the Air Force in July. Image: Martin Romualdez X Page 

Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s first cousin Martin Romualdez serves as speaker of the house of representatives, the fourth highest official in the land, who is able to sign laws and resolutions, as he presides over sessions in congress.

Romualdez is tied to the mining industry, being the son of the late Benjamin Romualdez, former president and chief executive officer of copper and gold mining behemoth Benguet Corp. 

Last year, he pushed a bill that allegedly reduced taxes for mining companies, inciting protests from anti-mining advocates. 

His son also sits on the board of directors of nickel mining firm Marcventures Holdings. The congressman himself set up a mining subsidiary last year worth US$2.7 million.

Among Marcos Jr’s staunchest allies in his cabinet are a troop of officials with high stakes in the mining sector. Senator Cynthia Villar, chair of the senate committee on environment and natural resources, and her son senator Mark Villar, owner of Prime Asset Ventures Inc, the parent company of TVI Resources Development Phils. Inc., which produces nickel. 

Senator Sherwin Gatchalian, who used to head the senate’s energy committee, has a family-owned business The Wellex Group, a mining company that extracts nickel and limestone.

Why does Indonesia have a net zero target, but the Philippines doesn’t? 

Outgoing Indonesian President Joko Widodo has been vocal about steering his country towards a net zero target of 2060 or sooner, even after his term ends in October.

The plan includes a phase out of the use of coal-fired plants by 2050, which he announced months after Indonesia signed the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) agreement on the sidelines of Indonesia’s G20 Summit in 2022.

Despite the country’s ambitious pledge, it is just a target on paper, said Firdaus Cahyadi, a veteran observer of energy politics and climate change in Indonesia.

“The target is only to attract new foreign investment and debt in the name of the energy and climate transition. Meanwhile, its development policies are not heading towards the net zero target of 2060,” Cahyadi told Eco-Business.

He cited how the climate law issued in 2022 that would mandate the state’s electricity company to prioritise the purchase of renewable energy sources is just a “legal umbrella” for the proliferation of coal-fired power plants in industrial areas. 

The regulation text contains a loophole: coal-fired plants are prohibited except for those that “meet the requirements, including being integrated with industry that is built oriented towards increasing the added value of natural resources …”, referring to captive coal plants that operate off-grid to solely power particular industrial facilities. These facilities are typically energy-intensive industries looking for cheap, reliable energy, such as aluminum smelters, steel plants and chemical plants.

Casting more doubt over its net zero promises, Indonesia opted not to sign the global renewable and energy efficiency pledge at COP28, where more than 100 countries committed to tripling the world’s installed renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels, doubling energy efficiency improvements, and accelerating methane emission reductions.

In fact, the Southeast Asian nation, which is also the world’s eighth biggest emitter, even announced early this year its plans to lower its renewable energy ambitions by 2030.

Incoming Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto (leftmost), who leads the Gerindra Party, is joined by outgoing Indonesian president Joko Widodo (Jokowi) in a gathering of the political party on 1 September 2024. Image: Prabowo Subianto X Page

As Prabowo Subianto takes over the new administration, there is also sceptism over how the policy of maintaining coal-fired power plants will be continued, as Prabowo is the sole shareholder of PT Nusantara Energy, a firm engaged in coal mining, oil palm, and forestry as well as holding financial interests in at least four other coal companies. 

Other key government officials with connections to the extractives industry include Bahlil Lahadalia, minister of energy and mineral resources, who owns PT Rifa Capital and PT Bersama Papua Unggu, which are shareholders in mining company PT Meta Mineral Pradana.

Rosan Roeslani, who serves as minister of investment, used to hold leadership positions in mining firm PT Bumi Resources Tbk as well as PT Kaltim Prima Coal and PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk.

“Compared to the Philippines, Indonesia is more advanced in its clean energy transition. Several environmental activists who were part of President Jokowi’s circle in his first term might have encouraged the declaration of a net zero target,” Cahyadi suggested. 

Who decides if the Philippines is ready to set a net zero target?

The Climate Change Commission (CCC) determines if the country is able to commit to a net zero target, said Albert Magalang, who is the environment department’s chief of climate change service.

The CCC is the main government agency which develops the national greenhouse gas inventory, based on an executive order issued in 2014, therefore the “outcome of the inventories with concurrence from national sectoral agencies with guidance from the DENR secretary [Antonia Yulo Loyzaga]” depends on the commission, Magalang told Eco-Business. 

The CCC prepared the first inventory in 2010 and was used as the baseline for the first NDC submitted to the UN in 2021.

Through a technical working group, the CCC brings together all national government agencies involved in the delivery of the NDC, especially the agriculture, environment, energy and transportation and communication departments, to make sure they are all aligned with the development and investment plans that serve as the government’s overall guide in social and economic planning.

The CCC is composed of three commissioners, including vice-chairperson Robert Borje, a career diplomat with the foreign affairs department, Rachel Herrera, a lawyer who co-led the development of the country’s first national adaptation plan, and Albert dela Cruz, who worked primarly in the private sector, for the Philippine National Oil Company Renewable Corporation and real estate industries.

Together with the department of foreign affairs, the body is also mandated to represent the Philippines in climate change negotiations, but it has been DENR’s Loyzaga who has acted as chairperson of the CCC, being the official representative of the Philippine president, ever since she was appointed to her post in 2022.