Southeast Asia’s nuclear power ambitions were on show last week as Singapore and Indonesia took steps to advance their respective capabilities in the sector. Much less discussed was their choice of technology partners and the risks they bring to the region.
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Singapore signed a deal with the United States last Wednesday (31 July) to unlock access to the latter’s know-how in nuclear power generation. On the same day, Indonesia’s incoming leader floated collaboration with Russia in a meeting with its president in Moscow.
The developments – along with increasingly frequent moves by neighbouring nations that also involve China – show that Southeast Asia is open to working with all three of the world’s superpowers to explore the potential for nuclear energy to decarbonise its energy sector, analysts say.
But they worry about individual countries having to eventually choose sides in an increasingly fractured global political environment, and call for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) bloc to jointly work on safety and security safeguards. Some say the risk of being drawn into wider rivalries is not worth the benefits nuclear energy brings, and advocate for the region to work harder on realising its renewable energy potential instead.
Generating electricity by splitting uranium atoms produces almost no carbon emissions. New small-scale reactors, reportedly safer and more versatile in how they can be deployed, are also on the horizon, spurring a surge in interest worldwide as global warming worsens.
Technology development has concentrated in the three world powers China, Russia and the United States, along with a handful of long-time nuclear power users. Russia and the US are at loggerheads over the war in Ukraine; China and the US frequently bicker over military buildup in the South China Sea. Each of the three is keen to build its presence in fast-growing Southeast Asia.
Last Wednesday (31 July), Indonesia president-elect Prabowo Subianto told Russian president Vladimir Putin in televised remarks that on nuclear energy, “we have discussed with your institutions, with [state-owned atomic energy firm] Rosatom, the possibility of cooperating in this field”. Putin said Russia is ready to invest in Indonesian sectors including energy, but did not specify any type.
The exchange comes a year after Indonesia secured a deal with the United States for technical assistance on a small modular reactor, proposed to be built in West Kalimantan with American firm NuScale. Indonesia has said it wants its first nuclear power plant by 2040.
Indonesia could be looking for alternative partners after US small modular reactor developers recently suffered significant setbacks, said Henning Gloystein, director for energy, climate and resources at US think tank Eurasia Group. A NuScale project in the US was canned earlier this year after cost overruns and failing to attract enough electricity buyers – months after fellow developer X-Energy called off going public citing challenging market conditions.
Bob Effendi, operations chief at PT Thorcon Power Indonesia – the local arm of US-based advanced reactor developer Thorcon, said that Southeast Asian countries will eventually have to choose one superpower to align with, and it is unlikely that nuclear regulations between potential partners can be cross-compatible.
“Indonesia cannot work with both the US and Russia. The US will not allow for it to happen, or they will pull out, which I’m sure Russia would not mind,” Effendi told Eco-Business, of his country’s situation.
Multilateral cooperation has happened before – China in the past had worked with Canada, France, Russia and the US. But such teamwork could be harder in Asean, given individual markets may be too small to host multiple partners, said Dr Victor Nian, chief executive of Singapore think tank Centre for Strategic Energy and Resources.
But he believes there is reason to engage with a range of partners at this stage. “With the current geopolitical dynamics at play, diversification is considered critical in balancing and managing the unforeseen risks in the future,” Nian said, commenting on Indonesia’s move.
Meanwhile, Singapore’s “123 Agreement” with the US is said to enable deeper nuclear cooperation between the two countries, including advanced and small modular reactors. Singapore has said the deal does not represent a firm decision on using atomic energy, though the city-state has been eyeing newer technologies for years.
Elsewhere, Thailand has been working with Chinese firms and scientists on nuclear energy technology. Russia is involved in building a nuclear science and technology centre in Vietnam.
While Southeast Asia has never used nuclear energy at utility scale, its tie-ups with nuclear energy powerhouses began decades ago. Rosatom’s Southeast Asia office has been set up in Singapore since 2014. The US’s 123 Agreement was signed with Indonesia in 1981, Vietnam in 2014 and the Philippines last month – as well as with Russia and China in the last decade.
Strengthen safeguards, or prioritise renewables?
Southeast Asia likely cannot yet fly solo on nuclear energy, so distancing itself from the geopolitical implications will be difficult. But stronger safeguards could be created if countries can agree to work through the Asean bloc, experts said.
Such collaboration entails data transparency when a nuclear plant is to be built.
“What is the technology used? Who is the vendor? Where is the site? What is the size? What, roughly, are the protocols to ensure safety and mitigate risks? This is basically the minimum that [countries] should be sharing,” said Nian, adding that communications channels and an agreement to inform each other of security and terrorist threats are also needed.
Joint research, dialogue and deployment of technologies as a bloc can also help temper the optics of individual countries “choosing a side”, Nian said.
Asean countries currently have a standing agreement to collaborate on civilian nuclear energy. Under a regional five-year plan until 2025, member states said they will work with international groups, build up capabilities and engage the public on the topic. A regulations network, Aseantom, has also been established since 2013.
Yet others believe that geopolitics is one more reason Southeast Asia should step out of the nuclear energy game.
“I think going down the nuclear power route would be a political and economic mistake for Southeast Asian governments, given the region’s vast but under-developed renewable power potential,” Gloystein from Eurasia Group said, pointing to the region’s solar, wind and geothermal resources that have “far fewer geopolitical strings attached”.
Leonard Simanjuntak, Indonesia country director at environmental campaign group Greenpeace, agrees, pointing to the 400 gigawatts of renewable energy potential that Indonesia theoretically has. He said Indonesia’s interest to work with two major nuclear powers Russia and the US raises the possibility of conflict at home, and similar tensions could brew in Southeast Asia.
There is a consensus within Asean member states to keep the region a nuclear weapon-free zone, but the involvement of major powers could chip away at the agreement, Simanjuntak said. China, Russia and the US all stockpile nuclear weapons, though such military programmes are by and large distanced from civilian initiatives.
“Pro-nuclear factions should not use the climate crisis and the need to decarbonise the energy sector as pretext for adopting nuclear energy,” he said.
Public acceptance of nuclear energy appears to be low in Southeast Asia, with a 2021 study covering Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam returning favourable responses of between 3 to 39 per cent.
The Asean Centre for Energy launched a new round of public perception surveys in May, and will share the results in an upcoming publication.
