The decisions governments across the world make on energy policy over the next five years will define the way the world looks in 2050.
This is the view of a Royal Dutch Shell’s vice-president for global business environment, Jeremy Bentham, who said governments had a limited window to get energy policy right as developing economies approached a “zone of extraordinary opportunity or misery”.
“A lot of what will happen out to 2050 is determined by the next five years because the policy frameworks for the next five years guide investment [decisions] for the next 15 years,” he said.
Because most major energy projects, including oil, gas and even uranium mines, operated on expected project lives of 20-30 years, current decision-making would set world energy supplies as far out as 2050, he said.
Mr. Bentham is in charge of Shell’s scenario-planning unit, responsible for decisions to help future-proof its business.
Speaking in Perth yesterday, he said the company accepted the scientific consensus that carbon emissions led to global warming.
Mr. Bentham said Shell already factored a carbon price into its project planning, but he did not say what price levels the company believed would be appropriate.
He called on governments to work with industry to plan for the future.
