Realistic targets for environmental mitigation in the aviation industry must be set at the next climate change meeting - the 16th Conference of Parties (COP16), said aviation analysts.
The COP16 is scheduled to be held in Cancun, Mexico next month. But many aviation analysts believe that action policies proposed at the COP16 on the greater use of alternative biofuels for commercial planes would have little positive impact on improving the environment.
A foreign aviation analyst said major changes to the current operations of commercial planes, in terms of the quality of fuel used, was unlikely.
There just isn’t any suitable alternative biofuel to replace aviation fuel commercially and the status quo is likely to remain for sometime, he said.
The analyst said for concrete green developments in the aviation industry to materialise, there needed to be a concerted effort by all players to focus on the environment as a top agenda.
I’m talking about the oil majors, the commercial plane manufacturers as well as air passengers to support the use of biofuel by action, he said.
He said short term sacrifices were expected if players in the industry were serious about achieving long-term objectives that factor in environmental concerns.
However, the analyst said that unfortunately, this genuine collaborative effort between the players in the industry was unlikely to occur - at least in the near term.
We believe each party has vested interest in continuing with the current status quo (of using aviation fuel), he said.
The analyst said: It is unlikely the oil majors will want to supply alternative biofuels to the industry, especially if margins are low and investment cost high.
An analyst with K&N Kenanga concurred with the foreign analyst that the level of adoption of alternative fuel in the industry globally would remain insignificant post COP16.
The analyst said there were too many issues involved, ranging from the lack of a commercially viable and proven alternative fuel, weak framework and mechanism for selling alternative fuel and insufficient funds in research and development, to develop a cost effective and continuous supply of ready-to-use alternative biofuel.
The K&N Kenanga analyst said: More importantly, it is the lack of commitment from all parties on affirmative action to make necessary and positive changes to protect the environment.
The government can have all the policies implemented but if the parties are unwilling to commit to the change - nothing happens, he noted.
There’s been much talk in recent years among players and various governments of the developed world for a change towards a more sustainable model for the industry, but talk can be cheap and often ineffective as proven in COP15 in Copenhagen.
Initially, there was a lot of optimism that the conference would result in affirmative action for climate change, but nothing concrete materialised.
Nevertheless, the COP15 at least raised greater awareness of the need to protect the environment, especially in the way corporations do business - by factoring the impact of their businesses on the environment and be held accountable. A local analyst said perhaps the political and environmental groups were a bit ambitious in setting too high a target for change in the last conference that no one could agree or achieve.
There needs to be more realistic goals set in the next meeting. And they should be achieve in stages by developed and developing nations, said the local analyst. He said the setting of standards and targets could not be applied across the board and should take into account of each country’s growth and economic status and financial capacity.
If COP16 achieves these simple goals and targets which hopefully are acted upon, then perhaps the conference would have made positive contribution to climate change, the analyst said.
He said the goal of each COP should be to make continuous and measurable improvements in the aviation industry for a cleaner environment.
While changes to protect the environment are happening - albeit slower than expected by certain quarters, are the changes each year fast enough to address global concerns and, more importantly save the environment? the local analyst asked.
Paul Steel, who is the International Air Transport Association (IATA) director for aviation environment, was reported as saying the lack of a specific mandate at COP15 had left the aviation industry vulnerable.
IATA is an international trade body created over 60 years ago by a group of airlines and now represents some 230 airlines globally.
If there had been a formal policy statement and mandate by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) at Copenhagen, it would have applied pressure at this September’s ICAO Assembly to ratify a global aviation framework, Steel said.
He said now the assembly must bring governments in line with industry targets if a solution is to be found at COP16.
Steel said in a sense the aviation’s own proactive measures was partly responsible for the lack of direction in COP15.
COP16 and beyond
The European Union Climate Action Commissioner Connie Hedegaard said the effort put into COP16 is no guarantee of success.
Reaching an agreement will be tough and sights might be more realistically set in South Africa in 2011.
