In the optimistic view, Barack Obama has given a jolt of energy to the Copenhagen climate talks. On Wednesday November 25th the White House announced that he will appear during the first week of negotiations with a specific American promise: to cut greenhouse gases by 17% from 2005 levels by 2020, by 30% by 2025, by 42% by 2030 and by a full 83% by 2050.
But cynics can spin the news the other way: Mr Obama was going to be in Scandinavia anyway, to pick up a Nobel prize that many feel he did not deserve. The promised target is no different to that already passed by the House of Representatives, and considerably lower than what other rich countries (especially in Europe) have promised. His stay will be brief, and comes well before the crunch time near the end. But it will still be a test of whether Mr Obama can turn goodwill into good works.
Mr Obama and other leaders have already conceded that Copenhagen will not produce a full schedule of legally binding emissions targets for all the world’s countries, a successor to the Kyoto protocol that expires in 2012. But the president has recently met the leaders of the two big countries most able, alongside America, to break the rich-poor deadlock that has made many climate-watchers worry about the prospect of any deal at all. And the prospects of some sort of agreement grew on Thursday. Wen Jiabao, China’s prime minister, said that he would also go to Copenhagen at the same time that China announced that it would take to the meeting a commitment to cut the amount of carbon dioxide emitted for each unit of GDP by up to 45% by 2020, compared to 2005 levels.
However China’s rapid pace of economic growth means that its overall carbon emissions will continue to grow for some years.
But the announcement boosts the chance of some sort of deal at Copenhagen beyond measure agreed on Mr Obama’s recent trip to Asia. He and the Chinese president, Hu Jintao, announced joint research projects on clean coal, electric cars and other bits of greenery. A similar package was announced when Manmohan Singh, the Indian prime minister, visited Washington, DC, this week (and enjoyed an elaborate state dinner, Mr Obama’s first).
This has given negotiators something to talk about besides the long-running conflict over who should cut emissions by how much. And though Mr Obama’s visit to Denmark is no guarantee of success, his absence from the conference would have ensured a wary and grouchy mood from other countries. Five cabinet secretaries will also be going to Copenhagen, to make their pitch for co-operation on farming, green jobs, research and the like.
As for the low target of 17% cuts from 2005 levels (against European Union promises of 20% or 30% on 1990 ones), Michael Levi of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York argues that 2020 is the wrong year to focus on. The target of an 83% reduction by 2050 is much more important; even a stronger 2020 target, successfully met, would only make a difference of a few parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. (The mainstream view is that carbon dioxide concentrations must stabilise at 450 parts per million or below to avoid dangerous climate change.)
This looks generous: as Lord Stern, a British economist, has noted, a weak 2020 target may make ambitious 2050 targets harder to hit. But the mere presence of guaranteed and falling caps on carbon would surely have some effect on investment in the sort of technology that might make reductions cheaper. Businesses have continually begged for a clear and consistent future legal regime, rather than Mr Obama’s backup option: direct regulation of carbon emissions by the Environmental Protection Agency.
By committing early to a target of 17%, Mr Obama has avoided another pitfall: promising more than Congress looks ready to deliver. The Senate cap-and-trade bill has promised 20% reductions, but it will have a hard road to reach 60 of 100 votes (enough to beat a Republican filibuster). And any climate treaty has an even higher hurdle to clear: 67 votes to ratify. That will be near-impossible if Mr Obama cannot charm out of his new friends, the leaders of China and India, measurable plans to limit, if not cut, their own carbon emissions. And if Mr Obama fails to deliver what he has signed up to, the damage to America’s reputation, and his presidency, will be incalculable.
