The shifting winds of geopolitics could be impacting the dynamics of climate governance, as Southeast Asians start to lose confidence in the European Union and the United States taking the global lead on climate action, according to a new survey.
To continue reading, subscribe to Eco‑Business.
There's something for everyone. We offer a range of subscription plans.
- Access our stories and receive our Insights Weekly newsletter with the free EB Member plan.
- Unlock unlimited access to our content and archive with EB Circle.
- Publish your content with EB Premium.
Climate change is also slipping off the agenda, with the proportion of respondents in the region who see it as a serious and immediate threat shrinking from 72.2 per cent in 2021 to below half in recent years – 49.4 per cent in 2023 and 42.5 per cent in the latest annual results.
The Southeast Asia Climate Outlook Survey, conducted by Singapore-based research centre ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, had the highest proportion of respondents (22.4 per cent) identifying Japan as a leader among global major and middle powers to help the world achieve its Paris Agreement goals this year. The Paris accord is a legally binding global treaty on climate change ratified by more than 190 countries to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050, compared to pre-industrial levels.
This is the first time Southeast Asians have placed Japan ahead of other jurisdictions since the question on climate leadership was first posed in the 2021 survey. The sentiments of nearly 3,000 respondents from across 10 Asean member states were captured in the report via an online questionnaire from mid-July to mid-August this year.
The EU, which led the pack last year, has dropped to the third place with 20.3 per cent of respondents recognising it as a global climate leader. US placed second with 20.4 per cent of the main share, although it has risen from a dismal 6 per cent in 2021.
The report authors noted that the Joe Biden administration has made efforts to “change the domestic climate landscape” by passing the Inflation Reduction Act – which seeks to boost green spending – and getting other countries to support its initiatives such as a global methane pledge.
Overall, observers tracking global climate leadership trends said the sentiments registered in the survey reflected that, for Southeast Asians, there is no clear leader that has emerged over the past five years. Confidence in the EU, in particular, fell drastically from 31.5 per cent in 2021 to 20.3 per cent. The report attributes this to uncertainties as the Russia-Ukraine war enters its third year.
Even as Japan emerges as a potential climate leader, its vote share is not significant and has dropped by almost a percentage point from 23.2 per cent in 2021. The Philippines, Indonesia and Brunei are its biggest supporters.
Across Southeast Asia, Singapore is most sceptical of global climate leadership. At least one in four respondents (26.3 per cent) say no country has demonstrated leadership, more than double that of the 11.3 per cent of all regional respondents who share that view.
Sharon Seah, senior fellow and coordinator of the institute’s climate change programme, said that the survey, now in its fifth edition, has been conducted against the backdrop of an ongoing economic conflict between US and China over trade barriers. “We have been thinking if the survey had been done under more stable conditions, for example before 2018 when the trade war started, there could have been a clearer climate leader.”
“Unfortunately, there is fragmentation in the global order and multilateral cooperation is lacking. No climate leader has emerged strongly in the past few years,” she said. “The only silver lining is that the region now sees Japan as a country that could take the lead.”
Seah suggested that in the absence of clear climate leadership globally, countries in the region have to find their “own ways of working together”, while cooperating with the middle powers so that there is at least some direction. “It is something for Singapore to think about as well. If there is a vacuum in leadership, maybe someone needs to step up.”
The survey report cited the war in Ukraine, Israel’s war on Gaza, sustained inflation, as well as rising food and energy prices, as ongoing events or trends that could have “overshadowed environmental and climate issues”.
Across Southeast Asia, those who deny climate change also increased notably this year to 2.2 per cent of the total respondents, with Laos, Brunei and Cambodia being most sceptical about whether there is scientific basis for the threat to be taken seriously.
Disconnect between science and action
Another key trend highlighted in the climate outlook survey is the growing role of subnational governments. More than half of the respondents (52.7 per cent) believe that local governments should bear responsibility for tackling climate change. This is the first time the share of respondents saying so is larger than those that say individuals should take responsibility.
At least eight in 10 respondents still believe that national governments should bear the most climate responsibility. 27.8 per cent of those surveyed said their national governments were the most active in tackling climate change; Singaporeans, on the other hand, are the most approving of government action and policies, with 63 per cent recognising the government for taking strong climate action.
Speaking at the report’s launch event on Tuesday, climate scientist and director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore, Professor Benjamin Horton, said that such a sentiment survey is needed as there is increasingly a “disconnect between climate science, which has clearly stated the problem, and how the stakeholders perceive it”.
Horton also expressed frustration at how leaders are not visibly concerned about the climate threat or have not acted urgently to tackle the problem. At the panel discussion, he criticised how the event’s guest of honour and Cambodia’s environment minister Eang Sophalleth was ushered out of the venue for a tour of the institute after delivering his keynote address, with half of the room emptying, instead of staying to hear the presentation of the survey findings.
“As soon as we came up on stage to discuss the survey, they left. Why didn’t they want to hear about the survey or from the scientists? That is the disconnect, and the problem with climate is priorities,” he said.
Horton urged individuals to pressure their leaders to take responsibility and discuss climate, to force the issue back on the agenda.
For example, he suggested that leaders in Singapore should be addressing issues of climate-driven extreme heat. With the shift to El Niño conditions, 2023 was declared the warmest year on record globally since 1850.
Dr. Masyita Crystallin, co-chair deputy of a coalition of finance ministers looking to mainstream climate action in fiscal policy and senior adviser to Indonesia’s finance minister, said that even if climate is a deep-rooted concern for governments, these sentiments might not completely translate into policy due to competing priorities such as the economy.
Rising food insecurity
This year’s survey featured a new question that asked respondents if they believe that climate change impacts will negatively affect their health. Respondents from the Philippines (71.5 per cent), Vietnam (61.4 per cent) and Thailand (55.8 per cent) showed the greatest concern.
Those who were worried about climate-related health problems were more likely to live in large cities. The report noted that urban centres experience higher extreme temperatures and have less green spaces to mitigate the impact of heat waves. Some cities are plagued by air pollution and overcrowding.
Food insecurity is also rising, with about 70 per cent of respondents in the lower and middle-income group reporting that they are struggling – an increase from 60 per cent in 2023.
According to World Bank data, food price inflation has been above 20 per cent in Myanmar, Vietnam and Laos, and above 5 per cent in Indonesia and the Philippines in the last 12 months.
