With 2024 set to become the hottest year on record, growing climate extremes mean some places around the world will become uninhabitable and that could lead to mass migration.
Some 26 million people were internally displaced by disasters such as drought or floods last year and if the climate crisis is left unchecked, about 216 million people could be internal climate migrants by 2050, according to the World Bank.
Here is what you need to know about the complexities of climate migration.
Who are climate migrants?
Identifying climate migrants is not easy.
The International Organization for Migration defines climate migrants as people moving due to “sudden or progressive change in the environment due to climate change“, by choice or compulsion, “within a state or across an international border”.
But people may have multiple motives for migrating. Climate hazards also affect other factors that force people to go on the move, such as a shortage of jobs or conflict over resources.
Yet about 70 per cent of the world’s refugees and displaced people come from climate vulnerability hot spots.
In Africa’s Sahel region, growing heat and erratic rainfall raise competition for water between farmers and herders, which in turn can trigger migration.
Another barrier to pinpointing climate migration is the variable pattern and timing of movement. Some people may migrate on their own, some may be uprooted by sudden climate shocks, while others may be relocated under a government plan.
Where do they go?
A majority of people displaced by climate change move somewhere within their country, especially to cities.
In the next 25 years, 8 million migrants will move into 10 cities of the Global South if climate risks are left unabated, according to a report by C40, a global network of nearly 100 mayors of leading cities aiming to confront the climate crisis.
Cities like Mongla in southwest Bangladesh have tried to create jobs and homes, and provide services for the migrants, but with the least developed countries getting just 1 per cent of urban climate finance in 2022, most of their cities are unprepared and underfunded for accommodating the surging numbers.
Does migration work for the climate vulnerable?
Countries are testing different approaches to help climate migrants.
In Panama, hundreds of Indigenous Guna people are getting ready to leave their small island homes threatened by rising seas and move to the mainland under a government programme.
To help climate migrants, Canberra offered climate-vulnerable Tuvaluans opportunities to live, study and work in Australia.
But many climate-vulnerable people see leaving their homes as the last resort since migration could erase their lifestyle and heritage, and a better life is not guaranteed.
In drought-prone rural India, migrant women working in sugarcane plants face gruelling, precarious working conditions and some even undergo hysterectomies to be able to work hard enough for a survival wage.
Can climate migrants have more choice?
Climate experts say people should be able to make the choice between migration with dignity and “voluntary non-migration“.
Sometimes the most vulnerable are trapped in “immobility”, unable to either migrate, or stay put and cope.
Steps to prevent more displacement may include investment in disaster risk reduction, while displaced people may need support to integrate into host communities.
Without prior planning and coordination, influxes of migrants could trigger political reactions, research suggests.
Some countries like Fiji and Vanuatu have adopted policies for safe, orderly and dignified climate migration, but with a massive adaptation finance gap, support across the world for climate migrants is limited.
This story was published with permission from Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, that covers humanitarian news, climate change, resilience, women’s rights, trafficking and property rights. Visit https://www.context.news/.
