For an indication of whether China or the U.S. will lead the way in alternative energy capacity like windmills, it helps to check which way the wind is blowing – in Washington.
Last year China pulled ahead of the U.S. in installed wind power generating capacity, holding a margin of about 4%, according to figures published this month by industry associations in each country.
Policies in Washington may dictate how long China’s reign sustains. President Barack Obama is widely expected to ask Congress to fund renewable energy programs during this week’s State of the Union address. A significant, and consistent, push from Washington to support renewables—a major portion of which would inevitably come from wind–could be enough to erase China’s slim lead.
China had momentum last year, lifting wind power installations 62% by adding some 16,000 megawatts worth of windmill turbine power, for total installation of 41,800 megawatts, the Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association, or CREIA, said in a joint press release with Greenpeace.
“This is definitely a milestone in the history of China’s clean energy development. China won this round in the global race for a green future, proving that it has the potential to become a world superpower in renewable energy,” said Yang Ailun, head of Greenpeace East Asia’s climate and energy campaign in a Jan. 12 statement.
About 9% of China’s energy mix was renewable last year, short of a target of 10% for the end of the last five-year plan, which expired in 2010.
In contrast, the pace of U.S. wind-power installations about halved from the previous rapid pace during the year to 5,115 megawatts, the American Wind Energy Association, or AWEA, announced this week. The national total edged up to 40,180 megawatts, with a quarter of it in Texas.
AWEA blamed the industry’s “boom-and-bust cycle” on “short-term incentives” from Congress that are “not conducive to business investment and increased employment.” Specifically the association was referring to a year of uncertainties over economic incentives, including a federal tax credit that was renewed in December but only for another year.
Now the industry is in a hurry. In the rush to start work before the credit expires, the association said, 5,600 megawatts of capacity was under construction in the fourth quarter of last year, far more than the total installed last year.
Policy support has been more consistent in China.
The State Council, China’s cabinet, is now considering a 5 trillion yuan plan to support emerging energy industrial development, with about 30% earmarked for the wind sector, Xinhua recently reported.
China’s Renewable Energy council says the industry’s “biggest problem for the future” is getting wind power generated in the north to where it is needed in the east and southeast.
“It should be clear, however, that China’s wind power capacity does not stand idle in any large quantities, as the media has reported,” the council said in a report last year. Using 2009 as an example, it said that of 24,120 megawatts of installed capacity, 17,670 megawatts, or 73%, had been connected to the grid and put in use, while the figure rises to 22,680 megawatts when including turbines that have the capability to be connected. Greenpeace says the near-30% gap compares with 10% elsewhere.
Topping the U.S. in wind capacity is an important milestone for China because the primary characteristic of alternative energy embrace has been to make equipment, not install it.
China is a leading solar power equipment producer, for instance, but the populous country isn’t one of the global leaders in installed capacity like the European nations, Japan and the U.S. Likewise, China is a leading exporter of energy saving light bulbs and wall insulation, but few of the country’s homeowners install them. In one area, China is ahead in installations, namely the lower-tech solar thermal sector, in which solar power is used to heat water. And in others, like nuclear, it is moving quickly.
By 2020, China could have 70,000 megawatts to 250,000 megawatts of wind-power capacity installed, according to an annual report published last year by the Brussels-based Global Wind Energy Council jointly with Greenpeace. The forecast said North America, including Canada and Mexico, is likely to reach a range of 106,000 megawatts and 279,000 megawatts in that period.
The report noted the industry is subject to volatility in annual industry installation figures. U.S. capacity surged 14-fold between 2000 and 2009 before the economic recession and expiration of government incentives significantly slowed activity. Whether Mr. Obama can convince Congress to incentivize the industry and retake the mantle from China is unclear. So far, the president has failed to pass an energy bill while the White House this week confirmed Mr. Obama’s energy czar, a chief renewable energy advocate, will leave her post.
In wind power, it seems industry trends can be as unpredictable as tomorrow’s breezes.
