The US International Trade Commission (ITC) announced the result of the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation against China-based solar firms on November 7, 2012. China-made solar cells will be subject to 14.78-15.97% anti-subsidy tariffs and 18.32-249.96% anti-dumping tariffs. The tarrifs will be in place for five years. The result of this is likely to curb China-made solar cells from entering the US market, said Ellick Liao, chairman of solar firm Taiwan Solar Energy (TSEC).
China-based solar firms are more concerned with the antitrust investigation being conducted by the EU. If the EU investigation also results in punitive tariffs against China-based solar firms, then about 70% of solar product imports from China will be blocked, said Liao. If the EU levies a tariff rate higher than 20%, added Liao, China-based solar firms will have to rely heavily on Taiwan-based solar cell makers to avoid the tariffs, said Liao.
In the beginning of 2012, China exported around 10GW of products to Europe and 2GW to the US. If the trade war begins, such demand will have to be met by outsourcing production to firms outside of China, Liao stated. In addition, clients from other areas who have relied on China suppliers may also have to look for other alternatives, said Liao. This means, Taiwan may have an opportunity to receive 12GW of orders. As Taiwan’s current supply chain can only fulfill 8GW of demand, the trade war will cause undersupply, added Liao.
The antitrust investigation in the EU will affect China greatly because more than 70% of China’s solar exports rely on the Europe market. Despite the fact that the EU investigation currently includes solar wafers, cells and modules, it is unlikely for the EU to put punitive tariffs on solar wafers, said Liao, but cells and modules are likely to be the target.
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