According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), various solar power technologies may account for the majority of the world’s electricity production within 50 years.
The comment was made to Bloomberg reporter Ben Sills in a recent phone interview and goes far beyond the IEA’s previous estimate of solar supplying 21 percent of the world’s power needs in 2050.
Another encouraging prediction from the IEA is under such a scenario, energy sector carbon dioxide emissions could fall to about 3 gigatons per year compared with about 30 gigatons this year.
The forecasted scenario will be explained in more detail at a conference in Kassel, Germany, on September 1.
Founded in response to the oil crisis in the 1970’s, the IEA’s initial role was to help nations access oil. The organisation subsequently turned its attention beyond issues just relating to the fossil fuel and has increasing sounded alarms about a looming “peak oil” scenario. Wikipedia defines peak oil as “the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline”.
In a report in 2009, the IEA said decline in oil production in existing fields was around 6.7 per cent a year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline estimate of 2007; and forecast peak oil will be reached globally within a decade.
Earlier this year, the IEA also warned surging demand for fossil fuels is still outstripping deployment of clean energy technologies. The body singled out the coal industry as the major culprit, stating fossil fuel subsidies should be removed and “transparent, predictable and adaptive incentives” for cleaner energy should be put in place.
While fossil fuel subsidies still provide a major block for the rapid uptake of renewables, since that time many countries have put or are in the process of putting more favourable policies in place to accelerate renewables adoption. With China and Japan recently implementing legislation to massively increase support for solar power, it’s predicted these two nations could provide the tipping point for solar technologies to achieve grid parity with fossil fuel based power generation globally within the next few years.
