Even if the carbon price is repealed by a Tony Abbott government, it is likely to be brought back again within a few years, according to a survey of experts who work for the heaviest-polluting companies.
The latest study of expectations about the climate change laws, by the Australian National University’s Crawford School of Public Policy, found 40 per cent thought the scheme would be repealed by 2016. But 79 per cent expected a price on carbon to be in force by 2020.
”An overwhelming majority think there will be a carbon price in the medium to long term, but more than half the experts from liable entities think the legislation will be repealed along the way,” said the economist Frank Jotzo, the author of a report on the survey.
”It really puts the spotlight back on to the uncertainty that is dominating the area.”
The Opposition Leader, Mr Abbott, has given a ”blood pledge” to repeal the carbon price scheme if elected, either with the support of a defeated Labor party or after a double dissolution election over the issue. The survey received 76 responses from big emitters, the carbon finance and investment sector and other experts.
Dr Jotzo said he did not claim the survey was representative of all companies liable for the tax, but that the respondents were responsible for more than half the emissions covered by the scheme.
Among the big emitting companies directly charged the $23-a-tonne tax, slightly more than half expect it to be rolled back. Big emitters paying the tax were twice as likely to believe the scheme would be repealed as investors.
Other findings included 70 per cent of those surveyed believed the bipartisan emissions target of a 5 per cent cut below 2000 emissions levels by 2020 would still be in place in 2015. A quarter thought the target would become more ambitious. Hardly any thought it would be scrapped.
Three-quarters did not expect the Australian scheme to have linked with the seven-year-old European system by 2018. However, 60 per cent thought Australian businesses would be trading carbon permits with Europeans by 2020.
Seven out of 10 representatives from the big emitters said their companies had already cut emissions in anticipation of the carbon price, and 84 per cent said they expected to make cuts over the next three years.
Dr Jotzo said it suggested big emitters were not holding back in starting to cut emissions, but the extent of the action was likely to be limited by uncertainty over its future.
The ANU report follows a survey by multinational GE and The Economist finding that three-quarters of senior executives polled expected the scheme to survive, but only a third believed the opportunities created by carbon pricing would outweigh the longer-term risks of the scheme.
