As leaders gather for COP29 climate talks in Azerbaijan, one issue likely to escape scrutiny, despite conflicts raging in Ukraine and Gaza, is the carbon emissions generated by the world’s armed forces.
The world’s militaries are among the biggest consumers of fuel and last year saw the highest number of state-based conflicts since 1946, according to the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
PRIO analysis showed that the past three years saw more conflict-related deaths than at any time in the last three decades, with the rise driven by three conflicts: the civil war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war in Gaza.
But only a few countries report their military emissions to international climate bodies. Scientists say the lack of complete data undercuts efforts to limit the global temperature increase to below 1.5 Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), and avert the worst impacts of climate change.
So how big is the world’s military carbon footprint, why are armed forces not reporting emissions and what is being done to fix it?
How polluting are the world’s armies?
If the world’s militaries were a single nation, they would have the fourth highest carbon footprint, accounting for 5.5 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, according to a 2022 estimate by international experts.
Two reports in 2019 found the US military was one of the largest CO2 emitters in the world - bigger than industrialised nations like Denmark and Portugal.
Most military emissions are generated from powering bases and moving people and equipment around, tasks that multiply in times of war and produce more emissions.
Why are armies reluctant to report emissions?
Defence forces are not bound by international climate agreements to either report or cut emissions; emissions abroad were left out of the 1997 Kyoto protocol on reducing greenhouse gases, and exempted from the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
Some militaries say publishing details of their oil and gas consumption could give adversaries insight into their operations.
Armed forces from the world’s richest countries have been asked to follow voluntary reporting guidelines, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), but in 2023 only Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States and Norway did so.
Under the Kyoto exception, many countries provide zero data, including India, Saudi Arabia and South Korea, among the world’s top 10 military spenders.
Climate scientists say transparency would strengthen national climate policies, which could in turn help reduce the risk of climate-related disasters and thereby improve national security.
Extreme weather caused by climate change can affect military operations and training as more of the defence budget is spent on damage and recovery costs, the US Defense Department says.
For example, it cost US$3 billion to rebuild a military camp in North Carolina after Hurricane Florence in 2018, US$3.7 billion to rebuild an air force base in Florida after Hurricane Michael the same year and US$1 billion to rebuild an air force base in Nebraska after floods in 2019.
Which countries’ armies are reducing their carbon footprint?
Most militaries do not have emissions reduction strategies, but some are preparing for changes in reporting requirements, while others are seeking to cut emissions.
For example, NATO, the 31-country Western security alliance, has created a methodology for members to calculate and report military emissions.
At COP28 in December last year, then NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated a pledge to slash emissions and said there should be “net zero in the armed forces” by 2050.
European Union defence companies will soon have to comply with new sustainability reporting standards.
The US Defense Department released its first climate adaptation plan in 2022, aiming to cut military emissions in half by 2030, and reach net zero by 2050.
It said it would electrify non-combat vehicles by 2035 and install microgrids, independent energy systems that can use many sources of power, at every base by 2035.
How can armies decarbonise?
While cutting military emissions may not be a key talking point at COP29 in Baku, the Conflict and Environment Observatory, a Britain-based environmental non-profit, is to host a side event with the Slovenian and Norwegian militaries to discuss decarbonisation strategies and present a “way forward for dealing with military emissions” under the UNFCCC.
The International Military Council on Climate and Security, a group of senior military leaders and security experts, said armies could decarbonise in a variety of ways, including by using clean fuels, energy-efficient drones and through carbon offsetting.
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