Electric vehicles will find more buyers in China and Europe than in the U.S. over the coming decade, mainly because fuel efficiency of conventional gas engines is improving faster and at a lower cost than automakers expected, according to a new study by Boston Consulting Group.
“Electric cars will undoubtedly play an increasingly large role in many countries’ plans as energy independence and environmental concerns intensify,” said Xavier Mosquet, global leader of Boston Consulting Group’s automotive practice. “But they will gain only modest ground up to 2020.”
The BCG study clashes with a separate study released today by the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor that estimates that automakers will spend an additional $3,700 to $9,000 per vehicle to achieve government fuel economy standard of between 47 and 62 miles per gallon by 2025.
“Consumers will shun these technology costs by holding onto their used vehicles longer, especially if fuel prices are below $3.50 per gallon,” CAR said in a press release. “This will result in lower sales and more than 260,000 jobs may be lost if the highest mandate is passed and fuel prices stay low.”
BCG’s Mosquet, who advised President Barack Obama’s auto task force during the 2009 bankruptcies of Chrysler and General Motors, said conventional gas engines are achieving more miles per gallon and emitting less carbon dioxide, through turbocharging, direct injection technology, lighter weight materials and smaller displacements. Those improvements are providing comparable benefits to electric vehicles at a lower cost.
Even so, there is a significant demand for alternative powertrains.
About 13% of consumers in China say they are willing to pay a premium of $4,500 to $6,000 for a green vehicle. That compares with 9% of Europeans and just 6% of Americans. BCG expects that electric vehicles (hybrids, plug-ins and battery-only cars) will represent 7% of China’s new light vehicle sales in 2020, versus 8% in Europe and 2% of North American new car sales.
Those results reflect China’s heavy governmental support for gas-electric and plug-in hybrid technology and higher gasoline and diesel prices in Europe.
While there will be a small core of environmentally proactive buyers willing to pay an extra $6,000 or more above the price of a comparable all-gas vehicle, most consumers who are open to hybrids, plug-ins or all-electric vehicles want to recoup any upfront price premium through savings on fuel consumption over the first three years of ownership, Mosquet said.
Marco Gerrits, managing partner in BCG’s Beijing office, said China’s actual EV demand could be either higher or lower than the survey results indicate.
Aggressive government promotion of electric vehicles has not yet led to breakthroughs in battery technology or significant sales outside public fleets.
“First results show that a lack of private parking lots in China will make it harder to charge electric vehicles,” Gerrits said.
