Waterfront communities from Southbank to the Mornington Peninsula face a damage bill of more than $1 billion from severe storms and rising sea levels over the next 90 years, according to a confidential climate change report.
The report, by federal, state and local governments, warns that parts of Rosebud foreshore could be completely submerged by 2100 during coastal flooding, while residents around Elwood’s canals face massive annual losses if government and local councils fail to act.
Maps from the report show a large section of Point Nepean Road would be regularly cut off during storms, while local residents and businesses would encounter frequent floods resulting from climate change.
The research warns that riverfront properties at Southbank are at greatest risk from flooding, with the annual cost of damage expected to increase from about $3 million in 2011 to almost $20 million by 2100.
The annual cost of flooding in Elwood would rise from about $2.5 million in 2011 to $15 million by the end of the century, according to the report, which is based on data from Melbourne Water.
Mordialloc would also experience a sharp increase in flood damage without immediate government action.
Due to be released next February, the Port Phillip Coastal Adaption Pathways Program examined four vulnerable coastal areas and another flood-prone area in North Melbourne known as Arden-Macaulay. All four Melbourne councils involved with the research have been briefed on the findings.
The report, excerpts of which have been obtained by The Sunday Age, establishes a cost-benefit framework that will be used to shape planning decisions and infrastructure investment by governments.
While some owners of foreshore land in Queensland and New South Wales will be urged to implement a ”staged retreat”, councils in Melbourne’s flood-prone areas will be advised to adapt to climate change challenges. The adaption option includes resilience to flooding and providing moderate protection from floods, according to a confidential document from Mornington Peninsula Shire Council.
At a private briefing in Rosebud on September 24, Mornington councillors and staff prepared a community response to the report.
”If somebody leaks this report in the next few weeks or the federal government releases it … we need to be able to reassure the community. If this got out, without the right information, it could upset people,” a council officer told the meeting.
Another council officer at the meeting said: ”There is clearly a lot of concern amongst people engaged in coastal management issues that the media don’t treat this issue well; they tend to jump to extreme positions and seek to divide the community.”
An audio recording of the meeting was accidentally placed on the council’s website.
Yesterday, federal Climate Change Minister Greg Combet said scientific evidence had proved that climate change was real and posed significant risks for future generations.
”This is why we have also been working closely with state and local authorities to help start planning for climate change so we can adapt our infrastructure and minimise the economic impacts,” Mr Combet said.
Estimates by the Climate Change Department from last year revealed that 247,600 coastal homes across Australia worth up to $63 billion were at risk of inundation from a sea level rise of 1.1 metres over the next century.
A recent study by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated Australian sea levels would rise by 90 centimetres by 2100.
Municipal Association of Victoria chief executive Rob Spence said the long-term prospects for coastal property owners around Port Phillip Bay were more positive than in other states.
”Reassuringly for all five case study areas, even under the worst-possible scenarios modelled, the research confirms it is economically viable to occupy the areas,” Mr Spence said.
He said the affected municipalities had already begun work to mitigate the impact of climate change.
In June, Victorian Planning Minister Matthew Guy introduced measures to counter coastal inundation, including a 20-centimetre floor-level rise in new houses in urban infill developments.
