Singapore’s Senior Minister S Jayakumar on Wednesday called on world leaders to summon the political will to converge on key issues dogging the United Nations climate talks.
Failure to do so could result in undesirable measures undertaken by countries such as trade barriers, and the loss of confidence in the UN multilateral regime, he warned.
Addressing the leaders at a high level segment of the summit which opened on Tuesday, Professor Jayakumar said talks at the Mexican city of Cancun will mark an “important turning point in our negotiations”.
“We are at a cross-road. The future direction of climate change negotiations depends on what we here do or fail to do,” he said.
He outlined three possible scenarios for the negotiations which he says are “rough sketches that foretell possible stories of the fate of our collective endeavours”.
The first scenario - and the most desirable - is one of a “united world” where a legally binding agreement is reached by 2011 or 2012, and a successful multilateral climate change regime is established.
“This is an optimistic scenario and may not be immediately achievable. Nevertheless, we must aim for such a scenario because it is the best way to deal with the challenges posed by climate change,” he said.
The second scenario is one of “muddling along”, where there is a mix of agreement and disagreement amongst countries. Concrete decisions made could also be difficult to implement due to public pressure on politicians in individual countries, which could lead to tension among the major players. “This looks like a realistic scenario, but it is not a satisfactory one because it is not sufficient to be muddling along,” said Prof Jayakumar.
The third one he predicted was “conflict and cross-fire”, where there is dissent amongst all parties and the UN fails to deliver an agreement. This could lead to countries taking action through other channels such as using trade tariffs. This is a scenario that “we have to avoid at all cost, because such a scenario will represent the failure of multilateral negotiations and of the UNFCCC”, he told the summit.
This point was also separately raised by European Union climate action commissioner Connie Hedegaard during a press conference on Wednesday. “What is at stake here is also multilateralism… to come out of here with nothing, is not a political option, and a dangerous option for multilaterism,” she said.
One major sticking point for the conference is the fate of the Kyoto Protocol. Prof Jayakumar said it was important to “send a strong political signal” in Cancun on its continuity. The protocol is the only legally binding treaty existing that curbs climate-warming carbon emissions and it expires in 2012.
But developed countries such as Japan, Canada and Russia have insisted they would not commit to a second period if the world’s major players like US, China and India were not included.
Earlier, Ms Hedegaard told reporters that the Protocol now covers less than 30 per cent of global emissions. If other major emitters like the US, Russia, Canada do not come on board, this proportion will fall to only one seventh of total emissions, she said.
“If it was not for the EU, the Kyoto would be dying. We want to keep it alive… because it makes no sense to throw away what you have until you have something better in place”, she said. But the EU will only commit to a second period if it includes all other players, she added.
She also revealed that the issue of transparency is still “in conversation”. Major emerging economies like China and India have recently softened its stance on the need to verify each country’s carbon emission pledges. But Ms Hedegaard said it was not enough for China to say they “do not mind transparency”.
“But what does it mean? We must go a bit more into the specifics,” she said.
Prof Jayakumar said the atmosphere at Cancun was notably less acrimonious than at Copenhagen last year. But beneath that surface, there is still a sharp polarisation of views especially between developed and developing countries, he revealed.
Last year’s “big bang” approach at Copenhagen, where negotiators raced to meet a deadline to ink a deal, created many tensions. At Cancun, negotiators are going for a “balanced package” which reduces the stridency seen in Copenhagen, he said.
Wednesday was also the first day of the second part of the summit where the Mexican presidency is steering the process, he said. “I think the Mexican presidency is trying its best to avoid the pitfalls of Copenhagen. Whether they will be successful in doing so remains to be seen because it’s early days,” he said.
Accompanying him at the summit is Minister of Environment and Water Resources Yaacob Ibrahim, who said that Asean ministers had been meeting the last couple of days to discuss the negotiations and its impact, and the region’s ministers were actively participating in this last leg of the negotiations.
