With presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump locking horns in their first election debate of 2024, environmentalists watched for signals on how the United States’ will move forward on the transition to clean energy.
Democrat Kamala Harris supports the acceleration of renewable energy projects, while her Republican opponent Donald Trump, who is backed by oil company donations, has been an outspoken critic of such plans.
In the United States, the world’s second-largest polluter after China, opinion polls show broad support for tackling climate change, but the issue remains politically divisive - with views on the environment split along party lines.
So what would a Trump or Harris presidency following the Nov. 5 election mean for the country’s transition away from fossil fuels?
What’s Harris track record on energy transition?
Supporters of Harris point to her long track record of backing legislation aimed at tackling the climate crisis, supporting clean energy projects and taking on oil companies.
As a US senator and presidential candidate in 2019, Harris supported a nonbinding Democratic resolution to create a “Green New Deal,” a sweeping plan to shift the country away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy.
When she was California’s attorney general from 2011 to 2017, Harris won multibillion-dollar settlements from oil majors Chevron and BP over pollution violations from underground fuel storage tanks.
And as vice president, Harris has supported President Joe Biden’s landmark climate legislation, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which provides billions of dollars in clean energy subsidies and investment to help fight climate change.
Such legislation plays a key part in reaching goals set by the Biden administration to cut US greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2030, compared to 2005 levels, and to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
What would a Harris win mean for energy transition?
If Harris were to win, her four-year term is widely expected to build on the Biden administration’s climate legislation and push forward investments on clean energy.
This includes continuing to implement the IRA and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to ensure hundreds of billions of dollars are funneled into energy transition.
The law provides expanded tax incentives and subsidies for renewable energy projects like wind and solar, green hydrogen and electric vehicles, with a particular focus on low-income communities and minority groups.
According to August data from the Energy Department, jobs in the clean energy industry in 2023 grew at more than double the rate of the country’s overall jobs.
Employment in the clean energy businesses - including wind, solar, nuclear and battery storage - rose by 142,000 jobs, or 4.2 per cent last year, up from a rise of 3.9 per cent in 2022.
Harris is expected to continue or expand on these public investments and initiatives, while pushing for new alternative fuels. She has supported US$7 billion in funding for hydrogen hubs as part of the bipartisan infrastructure law.
Still, US production of oil and gas reached record levels during Biden’s presidency.
Harris is unlikely to curb domestic hydrocarbon production, and the vice president has said she would not ban fracking on federal lands if elected president, despite having previously supported a ban. Fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, is used to extract oil and gas from deep underground.
What is Trump’s track record on energy transition?
During his term as US president from 2017 to 2021, Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement on climate change, the international pact to limit global average temperature rise to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) and ideally 1.5°C (2.7°F).
The United States rejoined the Paris Agreement under Biden, and Trump has vowed to again pull out of the accord again if he becomes president.
Trump’s administration rolled back environmental protections, including regulations to curb emissions of the greenhouse gas methane from oil and gas infrastructure, and approved more oil drilling on public lands, including in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
A second Trump administration would likely revise the US Interior Department’s five-year offshore oil and gas leasing program to expand the size and scope of drilling auctions.
Despite Trump’s promises to revive the coal industry when he was president, employment in the sector fell as power generators turned to plentiful natural gas and renewable energy.
What would a Trump win mean for energy transition?
If elected, Trump has said he would consider ending a US$7,500 tax credit for electric vehicle purchases under the IRA.
The law also contains billions of dollars of additional subsidies for clean energy, and it is unclear whether Trump would target those provisions.
Trump’s presidential campaign has laid out an energy policy platform centered around maximizing US fuel and power output.
This includes getting rid of clean energy regulations, introduced by the Biden government, on coal-fired power plants and vehicles emissions.
If elected, Trump has said he would immediately issue a “National Emergency Declaration” to eradicate bureaucratic hurdles to approve new drilling, pipelines, refineries, power plants and reactors.
Trump has also vowed to “rescind all unspent funds” under the IRA, which could mean renewable energy projects will languish.
However, repealing the IRA in part or wholesale would prove difficult as it would require Congress’ approval.
Regardless of any federal policy changes Trump could seek, many US states have already implemented their own renewable energy standards and incentives.
California, for example, aims to achieve 100 per cent clean electricity by 2045, and New York has set a target of 70 per cent renewable energy by 2030.
The costs of wind energy, solar PV technology, battery storage and carbon and capture storage have fallen over the last few years - driving investment in renewable energy.
This story was published with permission from Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, that covers humanitarian news, climate change, resilience, women’s rights, trafficking and property rights. Visit https://www.context.news/.
