Expected solar demand in 4Q11 will not solve current oversupply problem

Spire Solar
Industry observers noted that expected demand in the fourth quarter should outperform the third quarter. Photo: Spire Solar

Price negotiations for the fourth quarter between upstream and downstream solar firms are ongoing. Prices across the supply chain continue to decrease. However, the most important determination for the solar market will be the price of polysilicon. According to China-based integrated solar firm GCL-Poly, the firm might decrease the price of solar wafers to meet market demand. This will negatively affect many solar wafer and cell firms that do not have an in-house supply of polysilicon like GCL-Poly.

The market in China has been anticipating the price of mainstream 6-inch solar wafers to decrease to US$1.60/unit in the fourth quarter from the current price of US$1.80-1.85/unit, said industry sources.

The debt crisis in Europe and the US has been affecting lending from financial institutes. Previously, loans could be received from banks when systems were being constructed in Italy. Now, banks are only willing to provide 90% of loans when a system has been constructed and on-grid. The rest of the loan has a six-month waiting period. This change has been testing the financial ability of the firms.

Industry observers noted that expected demand in the fourth quarter should outperform the third quarter because further cuts in incentives are likely in 2012. However, demand in the fourth quarter will not be able to solve the oversupply situation in the market, added industry observers.

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