Sales of hybrid gas-electric cars started off 2011 with gains of 12 percent compared to a year ago.
This bodes well for 2011—despite the fact that hybrid sales declined by 32 percent compared to December 2010. This monthly drop is not likely to continue moving forward, because automakers provided incentives to move consumers into the showroom in December to reach annual goals and January sales tend to decline as a result. In addition, higher gas prices, and expectations that they will continue to rise, has put fuel efficiency back on consumers’ minds.
The biggest sign of recovery is that Toyota—representing 70 percent of hybrid sales this month—enjoyed a 10 percent gain from year-ago results. Most of Toyota’s quality and PR problems faced in early 2010, which took a toll on the hybrid leader, are in the rear-view mirror. (Meanwhile, in Japan, the Toyota Prius gave up its leadership as the top-selling hybrid to the new Honda Fit Hybrid, now the least expensive hybrid in Japan at about $19,000.)
There were some apparent losers for Toyota, such as the Lexus HS 250h, which has been a solid seller. Sales of the luxury hybrid sedan fell by 75 percent compared to last month. That might not bode well for the upcoming Lexus CT 200h luxury hatch—but the drop could be explained by the possibility that Toyota limited volumes in the U.S. to avoid losing money on an unfavorable exchange with the Japanese yen.
Increased visibility this year for the Nissan LEAF and Chevy Volt ironically is likely to increase interest in other alternative fuel vehicles including hybrids and diesels, since price and the relatively modest availability of these electric cars may encourage customers to buy other products that still meet their interest in greater fuel economy. G.M. executives openly say that the Volt is intended to bring people to the Chevy showroom, where they might drive off with a Cruze or another more affordable fuel-efficient option. Production of these plug-ins are just getting off the ground, and sales are still counted in the hundreds.
In diesels, the big news in the coming year will be the Jetta and the forthcoming Passat. The Jetta has been redone—and priced downward to be more in the mainstream—and the Passat launching this summer will be similarly positioned. Potential volumes for the diesel engine are quite high given this change in positioning and the availability of their diesel engine.
2011 promises to be the biggest year ever for electric-drive and diesel vehicles—just in time for higher fuel efficiency standards that start to kick in in 2012.
The HybridCars.com monthly sales dashboard is a collaboration of HybridCars.com and Baum & Associates, a Michigan-based market research firm focusing on automotive issues including the hybrid and electric vehicle market.
