While South Africa is preparing to host a U.N. climate change conference in November, two other nations are locked in a behind-the-scenes battle to accommodate the massive summit in 2012.
The bid for the 18th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pits South Korea — an emerging leader in the global quest to reduce greenhouse gas emissions — against Qatar. Many diplomats hope that activism by Qatar, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, may convince other oil-producing states in the Persian Gulf to take climate change more seriously.
The Korea vs. Qatar competition has lasted nearly two years, and so far, neither country has shown signs of backing down. At a recent meeting in Bangkok, both countries launched a mini lobbying blitz, with representatives approaching environmental activists and negotiators alike in an attempt to consolidate support. Anxious UNFCCC officials have called for a decision by June — but three diplomats close to the discussions say the decision might not come until November — and may for the first time in UNFCCC history require a vote.
“It’s unusual,” said Jake Schmidt, international climate policy director at the Natural Resources Defense Council. “As far as I can remember there hasn’t been a time when there are two competitors this late in the process.”
The cost of accommodating a U.N. climate conference can be exorbitant. Both last year’s meeting in Cancun, Mexico, and the 2009 summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, cost the respective countries upward of $100 million — not including security — for things like conference logistics, transportation, public diplomacy and extra staffing.
And in some cases — like in Copenhagen, where country leaders helped create outsized expectations of what could be achieved — the host government can take a major beating from the press. There, as attempts to forge a new treaty fell through and controversial draft agreements leaked out, a national ad campaign to “Turn Copenhagen into Hopenhagen” became an international joke. Some journalists redubbed the Danish capital “Nopenhagen.”
Korea voluntarily accepts tough targets
But the benefits include more visibility on the world stage. The U.N. climate change conferences have become major annual attractions among environmental activists, the renewable energy industry and scores of international development and energy agencies. Heads of state and even movie stars have been known to show up.
Countries often vie for the privilege of hosting the conference, the location of which is offered to different regions of the world in a rotating order. The Danes, hoping to see a new treaty signed in their nation, maneuvered out of order to have the 2009 conference in Copenhagen by footing some of the bill for conferences in Poznan, Poland, and Cancun. Meanwhile, when the wheel spun to the Latin American region, Mexico lobbied for months behind the scenes to convince Peru to drop its bid.
But this time, observers said, the contest has split the Asian and developing country delegations and upended the quiet diplomacy and back-channel horse-trading that usually accompanies such decisions within regional groups.
Analysts say the approaches of South Korea and Qatar to the climate change negotiations could not be more different. Each country, observers noted, would offer distinct advantages and disadvantages as host, and each has strong supporters. So sensitive are the deliberations that neither Korean nor Qatari government officials would talk on the record about their respective bids.
Korea, the fourth-largest economy in Asia, has vowed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions 30 percent below business-as-usual growth over this decade. The voluntary target comes to about a 4 percent cut from 2005 levels — a reduction that President Lee Myung-bak acknowledged would involve a “short-term burden” but predicted would ultimately bring Korea greater benefits.
