Thailand included renewable energy on the national agenda as oil prices remained highly volatile in the country and are likely to remain so for the year.
According to country’s Alternative Energy Development Department, 2011 will be a golden year for renewable energy as volatile prices could push consumption of renewables to 12-14 per cent of the total.
Domestically, petrol prices are expected to rise 60-70 satang per litre and diesel Bt1.30-Bt1.40, according to the Department.
Phiraphol Sakarin, director-general of the department, based his forecast on the likelihood that Dubai crude oil would average $83 per barrel this year. Refined oil products could rise $5-10 per barrel with refined petrol at $92.2 per barrel from $86.4 and diesel at $96.7 from $87.4. Every increase of $1 in oil prices will raise domestic prices by 19.20 satang per litre.
The oil price could fall or rise 50-60 satang per litre if the baht strengthens or weakens by Bt1 per dollar.
Krairit said licensed operators of renewable projects should be encouraged to start operations. Coupled with new projects to be unveiled, renewable energy consumption could account for 12-14 per cent of total this year.
In a recent research report, Thai Oil said it expected Dubai crude oil prices to be more volatile and average $85 (Bt2,570) per barrel this year, 8.97 per cent above last year’s average of $78.
The firm forecast oil prices would rise in line with global economic expansion and tight supply from Opec countries.
Factors influencing oil prices next year will include capital flows, international disputes, tighter regulations and natural disasters.
“Global oil demand will average 99.8 million barrels per day, up by 1.3 million barrels from this year,” the report said. “Over half of the demand will come from Asia, particularly China and India.
“Demand in the United States, Europe and Japan will drop due to higher energy efficiency and a stronger push for renewable energy.”
Meanwhile, supply from non-Opec countries is expected to rise, particularly Latin American countries and Russia. This will help absorb a possible hike in oil prices.
Thai Oil estimated that combined refining capacity of refineries in Asia will increase by just 120,000 barrels a day, mostly from China, India and Pakistan. Some refineries have delayed opening while others will be shut down. This means the oversupply problem will lessen.
Solar power is the most promising renewable power source. The Alternative Energy Development Department says it will review regulations to allow solar panel installations on household roofs as well as solar boiling systems in private commercial premises.
