The race for minerals to power renewable technologies is set to ramp up in 2025 as governments in Europe and North America compete to secure access to crucial materials and break China’s grip on the supply chain.
With demand for ‘net zero’ minerals set to almost triple by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency, mining of lithium, cobalt and nickel found in countries like Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Philippines is gathering pace.
But the environmental and social consequences for local populations are growing as resource-rich countries push to secure a share of the global green rush.
At the COP29 climate talks last November, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of the danger that the energy transition could trigger a “stampede of greed that crushes the poor”.
Here are some of the key countries and conflicts to keep an eye on in 2025.
Democratic Republic of Congo
The Democratic Republic of Congo has most of the world’s reserves of cobalt, a silvery-blue metal used in making rechargeable batteries, according to the World Bank, and the mining sector is largely dominated by Chinese firms.
With mineral wealth estimated at US$24 trillion, the central African country is one of the world’s richest in terms of natural resources but most of the minerals are in the east, where armed groups have seized control of mines, using them to finance criminal activities and exploit local communities.
More than 120 armed groups are fighting for control of land and natural resources in this region and millions have been killed, and millions more displaced, since the 1990s.
Because of this, electric vehicle and battery manufacturers are under scrutiny to ensure that metals they use are not sourced from eastern Congo.
Last December, the Congolese government filed criminal complaints against Apple subsidiaries in France and Belgium, accusing the tech giant of using conflict minerals in its supply chains. Apple strongly disputes the claims.
It is now up to judicial authorities in Belgium and France to decide whether to investigate and bring criminal charges that could set a legal precedent in other conflict minerals cases.
Chile
Chile holds the world’s largest reserves of lithium, also known as “white gold”, and is the second largest copper producer. Both metals are used in energy storage and electric vehicles.
However, 90 per cent of lithium reserves are in the Atacama desert and current lithium mining processes use vast amounts of water, depleting and contaminating the already limited supplies for nearby businesses and Indigenous communities, while also threatening fragile ecosystems.
For example, a proposed new lithium project in the Ascotan salt flat has raised concerns among residents and environmentalists that water extraction will endanger the extreme environment-adapted “karachi” fish .
The Chilean government said in 2023 it planned to take state control of the lithium industry and wanted to develop more sustainable extraction technologies in consultation with affected Indigenous communities.
The government is expected to launch a national minerals strategy in 2025, and plans to invest about US$83 billion through 2033, state-run agency Cochilco said in December.
Brazil
With reserves of nickel, lithium, cassiterite and bauxite, Brazil has seen a surge in mining activities as well as conflicts in Amazon areas that are rich in biodiversity and home to Indigenous peoples.
A report released last year by Brazilian NGO Terra de Direitos detected 348 conflicts pitting small-scale farmers, workers, Indigenous and Afro-descendant peoples against mining enterprises between 2020 and 2023. It said the conflicts affected more than 100,000 people.
As the fifth-largest lithium producer in the world, according to Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy, Brazil plans to ramp things up this year with new exploration projects and investments - particularly in the Jequitinhonha Valley in the southeast, focus of the state government’s “Lithium Valley” project aimed at attracting investors.
Philippines
In the Philippines - the world’s second largest producer of nickel - the rush for transition minerals fuelled by the electric car industry threatens biodiversity, Indigenous communities’ land rights and the safety of environmental defenders, according to a December investigation by environmental protection groups Global Witness and Kalikasan.
The government is planning to incentivise domestic companies to process critical minerals needed for the green transition to meet the country’s goal of having an electric vehicle fleet share of at least 50 per cent of all vehicles by 2040.
A fifth of the country’s land mass of 300,000 square km (115,830 square miles) is covered in mining projects for nickel, cobalt, copper and other critical minerals, the report said.
The report also found that a quarter of the land used for transition mineral mining overlaps with key biodiversity and protected areas, and domestic laws protecting the rights of Indigenous peoples have failed to protect them from losing ancestral land because of mining.
It said that Indigenous Filipinos have lost a fifth of their ancestral territories to mining projects - an area greater than the size of Timor Leste.
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