Wind and solar have reduced the share of coal power in G20 countries since the Paris Agreement, according to an analysis of data from the fourth annual Global Electricity Review published by energy think-tank Ember. However, the transformation is not yet happening fast enough for a pathway aligned with 1.5°C, although there are positive signs.
Brazil, which will host the G20 next year, has the highest share of clean electricity in the G20. In 2022, Brazil generated 89 per cent of its electricity from clean sources, which includes 63 per cent hydro, 12 per cent wind power and 3 per cent solar power. Fossil fuels accounted for 11 per cent of Brazil’s generation in 2022, the majority of which was gas (7 per cent).
The report found that India, however, is much further behind in decarbonising its electricity system. It has the second-highest coal reliance, after South Africa, but is already getting 9 per cent of its electricity from solar and wind.
“Brazil is way ahead of India in securing a clean electricity system,” said Dave Jones, Ember’s head of data insights. “G20 hosts can both learn from each others’ successes. India is stepping up as a solar king, with generation growing by 45 times in the past decade to reach 5 per cent of its power in 2022. Brazil had a headstart with a strong base in hydroelectric power, but they haven’t rested on their laurels, with a truly impressive growth in wind power, which has grown 16 times in the past decade and reached 12 per cent of its power in 2022.”
“
Replacing coal power with wind and solar is the closest thing we have to a silver bullet for the climate. Not only do solar and wind cut emissions fast, they also bring down electricity costs and reduce health-harming pollution.
Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, senior analyst, Ember
The data revealed that in G20 countries, wind and solar reached a combined share of 13 per cent of electricity in 2022, up from 5 per cent in 2015. In this period, the share of wind power doubled and the share of solar power quadrupled. As a result, coal power fell from 43 per cent of G20 electricity in 2015 to 39 per cent in 2022. Shares of other sources of electricity remained broadly stable, with fluctuations of just 1-2 per cent, the report added.
“Replacing coal power with wind and solar is the closest thing we have to a silver bullet for the climate,” said Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, senior analyst at Ember. “Not only do solar and wind cut emissions fast, they also bring down electricity costs and reduce health-harming pollution.”
Across the G20, progress towards wind and solar power is mixed. The leaders are Germany (32 per cent), the UK (29 per cent) and Australia (25 per cent). Turkey, Brazil, the US and China have consistently held above the global average. At the bottom are Russia, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia with nearly zero wind and solar power in their mix.
According to the report, 13 of the G20 still have over half of their electricity from fossil fuels as of 2022. Saudi Arabia stands out with almost 100 per cent of its electricity from oil and gas. South Africa (86 per cent), Indonesia (82 per cent) and India (77 per cent) are the next most reliant on fossil fuels, all predominantly coal.
OECD countries in G20 gear up to 2030 coal phase-out
Among advanced (OECD) economies in the G20, which should target coal phase-out by 2030, there has been a reduction in coal generation by 42 per cent in absolute terms from 2,624 TWh in 2015 to 1,855 TWh in 2022.
The report revealed that the fastest decline in coal power in the G20 has been achieved by the United Kingdom, which reduced its coal generation by 93 per cent since the Paris Agreement was signed, falling from 23 per cent of electricity in 2015 to just 2 per cent in 2022.
Also, Italy halved its coal power in the same period, while the United States and Germany reduced their coal power by around a third. Even coal-dependent Australia has reduced its share of coal power from 64 per cent in 2015 to 47 per cent in 2022. Among advanced economies in the G20, Japan stands out as it has yet to reduce its share of coal power, which remains around a third of its electricity.
The growth in wind and solar generation has been a key factor in the success of these OECD countries in reducing coal power. The UK and Germany stand out with the highest shares of wind power at 25 per cent and 22 per cent in 2022, while Australia and Japan top the G20 for solar power share at 13 per cent and 10 per cent in 2022.
Although the G20’s share of coal power has reduced since the Paris Agreement, the report found that the absolute generation of coal power has increased as countries turn to coal to meet rising demand. In 2015, G20 countries generated 8,565 TWh of coal-fired electricity, increasing by 11 per cent to 9,475 TWh in 2022. This increase is being driven by five countries.
Five G20 countries yet to peak coal emissions
Just five G20 nations have seen coal increase in absolute terms since 2015. These are China (+34 per cent, +1374 TWh), India (+35 per cent, +357 TWh), Indonesia (+52 per cent, +65 TWh), Russia (+31 per cent, +47 TWh) and Türkiye (+50 per cent, +37 TWh).
Among these, China and India have been able to reduce the percentage share of coal in that period, as they focus on scaling up wind and solar to meet rising demand. China generated 70 per cent of its electricity from coal in 2015, reducing it to 61 per cent in 2022. India achieved a smaller decline, from 76 per cent of electricity from coal in 2015 to 74 per cent in 2022.
However, Indonesia, Russia and Türkiye have all seen their share of coal power increase, the report added. There are signs that these countries are nearing ‘peak’ coal emissions, as clean power is close to growing quickly enough to meet all growth in demand. In China, wind and solar met 69 per cent of the growth in electricity demand in 2022, while all clean sources met 77 per cent.
Over half of the electricity demand rise in Asia (52 per cent) was met with clean electricity in the seven years from 2015 to 2022, double the 26 per cent achieved in the seven years before that. Peaking emissions is the first step, how fast the phasedown of fossil fuels then happens will depend on actions taken by governments to accelerate the deployment of wind and solar.
This story was originally published on CarbonCopy.
