“Runaway” climate change may be the price of retreating from nuclear energy in the wake of Japan’s nuclear crisis, according to an analyst at Orbeo.
Failing to replace or expand nuclear capacity will boost global emissions by 1.7 billion metric tons in 2030, said Emmanuel Fages, an analyst in Paris at the carbon-trading venture of Rhodia SA (RHA) and Societe Generale (GLE) SA. That estimate includes 1.3 billion tons from replacement coal and 381 million from natural gas, he said today in an e-mailed research note.
“Confronted with the heightened perception of nuclear risk following the Japanese disaster, populations might have to choose, through their vote, between this nuclear risk and runaway climate risk,” Fages said. “Nuclear is seen by many only as a ‘bridge’ to the future zero-emission power technologies to be developed and made economical for large-scale deployment. But this bridge is necessary.”
Renewable-energy capacity would be 7.5 percent higher in 2030, compared with a scenario that includes expansion from reactors. The higher emissions would make it “unfeasible” to avoid damaging climate change, Fages said.
Meeting the United Nations goal of keeping temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) will require carbon-dioxide equivalent cuts of about 35 billion tons in 2030 alone, compared with so-called business-as-usual levels, he said, citing figures from the International Energy Agency.
Engineers in Japan are trying to control radiation leaks from crippled reactors at the Fukushima plant north of Tokyo. Prime Minister Naoto Kan described the crisis as “very grave.”
Climate debate
While the crisis not likely to stop all expansion of nuclear plants worldwide, assessing that scenario “is useful in the global energy-climate debate,” the analyst said. Cumulated over the 20 years through 2030, the extra emissions amounts to 17.2 billion tons, he estimated.
Those greenhouse gases are valued at 289 billion euros ($408 billion) based on today’s benchmark European Union December carbon futures price of 16.80 euros a ton on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London as of midday. The price of EU carbon is up 7 percent in the last week and 25 percent from a year ago.
Another bridging option for the world might be construction of carbon capture and storage plants, according to the note. “However, it is not anticipated to be available at a significant scale before 2030.”
