Asia Pacific could triple its carbon emissions by 2050 if it continues its unsustainable use of resources, putting an unbearable strain on ecosystems at a time of mounting concerns over climate change and food, water and energy security, a new study by the United Nations and Asian Development Bank (ADB) warns.
Asia Pacific is currently the world’s largest and most inefficient resource user. According to 2005 statistics, the region required three times the input of both renewable and non-renewable resources as the rest of the world to produce a dollar of gross domestic product (GDP), the study released Thursday said.
In 2005 alone, Asia Pacific consumed around 32 billion tonnes of materials including biomass (such as wood), fossil fuels, metals and industrial and construction materials. If this trend continues, Asia Pacific is likely to be using 80 billion tonnes of materials by 2050, said an earlier UN study.
On the other hand, more efficient resource use, reduced reliance on fossil fuels, investment in low-carbon technology and infrastructure and changing lifestyles could make Asia Pacific a world leader in sustainable development, suggested the report, Green Growth, Resources and Resilience - Environmental Sustainability in Asia and the Pacific.
“The choices that Asian and Pacific countries make during the next few decades are critically important for the future of its people,” the study said.
“A key dilemma will be how to meet the needs of expanding and increasingly affluent populations while reducing poverty and staying within environmental limits.”
Growing emissions of greenhouse gases - of which carbon dioxide is one – are driving climate change. Scientists say the world needs to reduce current global emissions to avoid dangerous impacts including more extreme weather and rising sea levels.
The report, published in anticipation of the 20th anniversary of the first Earth Summit – the anniversary will be held in June in Rio de Janeiro - is urging governments to focus on “a better quality of growth” where green investment and technologies, efficient use of resources and good governance help reduce climate change and overuse of the world’s resources while improving life for the poor.
Less poverty, more pollution
In the past two decades, more than half a billion people in the Asia Pacific region have been lifted out of poverty, a development experts attribute to the region’s high growth rate. Unfortunately, such progress was achieved at a great environmental cost, activists and experts now say.
Rapid urbanisation and industrialisation have accelerated the degradation of ecosystems, polluted the air and water, and depleted natural resources. The world’s most populous region is almost among the most vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Asia Pacific is also facing shortfalls of food and water and energy as demand mounts and dietary desire change.
The answer may lie in green growth, defined as economic progress that is low-carbon, environmentally sustainable and socially inclusive, the report added.
“We are entering a future which is characterised by increasing shortage of resources,” Daniele Ponzi, a lead environment specialist at ADB, told AlertNet.
“(Green growth) is the most appropriate economic model to embark upon because we still have growth, job creation and poverty reduction but we try to prioritise the green, clean sectors (rather) than the dirty, brown ones,” he added.
About two-thirds of the $8 trillion needed for infrastructure work in the region between 2010 and 2020 will fund new infrastructure, which “presents a unique, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to build more sustainable infrastructure,” Ponzi said.
Housing, transportation networks and energy and water supplies that use fewer resources and are more environmentally-friendly would reduce emissions and pollution and improve public health and mobility, according to the study.
Technology not enough
Yet the latest technological advances and better use of resources alone will not be sufficient to turn back the negative impact on the environment as the Asia Pacific region continues to grow and consume more, the study warned.
“In the longer-term, what we need is systemic, structural, transformational change. … What we have to do is really change our consumption and production patterns,” Ponzi said.
This means substantial changes in behaviour and lifestyles and could affect everything from how people are housed and moved around to how water, energy and food are produced, the study said.
Ponzi also tried to allay fears expressed by activists over the term “green economy”, which some activists say say focuses too much on economic and science issues and ignores two other important aspects of sustainable development - social and environmental needs.
“The concept of green growth and green economy is not going to replace sustainable development. These are moves towards achieving sustainable development in the long-term,” he told AlertNet.
A new focus on sustainable development and a wide-ranging blueprint for action to achieve it worldwide that were agreed at the 1992 gathering “are very close to our hearts and they’re going to stay,” he added.
