Santos says Asia’s demand for natural gas will more than double in the next 15 years, offering significant opportunities for Australian exporters.
Santos says gas demand will rise in the established markets of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan as well as the mega-markets of China and India.
But the biggest driver will be in the emerging markets of Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
“It is not just China and India where energy demand is expanding,” Santos chief executive David Knox said at a conference on Thursday.
“The established markets of Japan and South Korea, and the emerging markets of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) are set for sustained periods of growing demand.”
Between now and 2035 Asia is expected to account for 48 per cent of global population growth and 64 per cent of growth in primary energy consumption, Mr Knox said.
“Notwithstanding the growth of China and India … it is the emerging markets … that will be the biggest drivers in Asian gas consumption over the next 25 years.”
Mr Knox said coal was forecast to be the dominant fuel in 2035, accounting for 50 per cent of the fuel mix with gas at 11 per cent.
“We would argue that’s an under-representation of the role natural gas can play as a cleaner burning fuel,” he said.
“Any policy shift towards cutting carbon emissions is likely to sharply accelerate the growth outlook for natural gas.
Mr Knox said every percentage increase of gas in Asia’s fuel mix would equate to 62 mtpa of LNG imports in 2035.
“In an Australian context, that’s four Gorgons in the West, or more than 15 trains at Gladstone in the East,” he said.
