Amid Asia’s artificial intelligence-fuelled data centre boom, water consumption, has come into sharp focus in recent years. However, experts in this region are sounding the alarm for another oft-overlooked water risk: rising sea levels.
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Timed with the first-ever World Glacier Day falling on 21 March, Hong Kong-based think tank China Water Risk (CWR), alongside other cryosphere research institutes, has released a factsheet revealing that over 14 trillion tonnes of ice have vanished in the last three decades – averaging a loss of over 50 million tonnes per hour from the world’s mountains and polar regions.
“The rate of sea level rise has already doubled in the last 30 years and is set to rise further – 1 metre (m) is now possible by 2070 if high emissions continue,” warned the institutes in a joint press release. This exceeds previous projections that sea levels would rise between 0.6 to 1m by 2100, under the worst case emissions scenario by the United Nations climate science body. Earlier this year, a study by Singapore estimated that global sea level rise of up to 1.9m by 2100 is “very likely”.
Despite these alarming figures, the threats posed to Asia – where half the population live in low-lying coastal areas – remain largely “out of sight, out of mind,” said Debra Tan, director and head, CWR.
There is also the argument that it is unfair that Asia, which has not historically contributed to global warming, has to bear a disproportionate burden of decarbonisation, said Tan. However, given that 50 per cent of global greenhouse gases now originate from Asia, which is among the most vulnerable regions to ice losses, it is imperative that businesses and policymakers act to accelerate decarbonisation this decade, with more developed countries, like Japan and South Korea, stepping up climate ambition, she said.
Threats to trade, power production and coastal cities
The redrawing of coaslines as a result of rising sea levels could impact at least 200 million Asians, sink low-lying coastal capitals and disrupt global trade, the report warned.
The Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) – known as Asia’s “water tower” – experienced record-low snowfall in the past year and unprecented ice loss, raising concerns for water supply for the 10 mighty rivers in the region, including the Ganges, Indus, Mekong, Yangtze and Yellow Rivers.
“Not only do one in two Asians live in these 10 river basins, but these basins are also economic powerhouses with over 280 large cities and 865GW of power assets,” the factsheet stated.
In 2023, a devastating lake outburst in the Himalayan state of Sikkim in India, caused by accelerated glacial melt, destroyed over 30 bridges, 25,900 buildings and a 60-m high hydropower plant. “The situation is serious; if emissions continue, we could lose up to 80 per cent of HKH glaciers by 2100, but we could face peak water for HKH rivers sooner, by 2050,” said Perma Gyamtsho, director general of International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), one of the co-authors of the guide.
Fast-rising sea levels also threaten almost two-thirds of oil produced globally, due to the reliance of the global oil trade on oil tankers and maritime infrastructure like ports and bunkering facilities, which are coastal and largely low-lying, a previous CWR analysis found. Its stress tests of the top 15 tanker terminals with 1m of sea level rise found that 12 would be impacted.
The International Energy Authority has projected that oil production is set to rise by 5.8 million barrels per day from 2022-2028, with the United States set to contribute to nearly half this amount. “This last hurrah to pump more oil led by the US in the next five years when we desperately need to deliver deep emission cuts could well trigger ice tipping points and unleash unstoppable multi-metre sea level rise,” the latest factsheet’s authors stated.
When US president Donald Trump took office in January, he declared a “national energy emergency” and committed to boosting oil and gas production in the country, which has pulled out of the Paris Agreement climate deal to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
‘2°C is too hot for ice’
The world has already warmed by 1.3°C since pre-industrial times, necessitating the dialling back of emissions by 2030, said Pam Pearson, the director of the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI).
“If we do not, then keeping carbon dioxide levels and temperatures close to 1.5°C becomes essentially impossible,” said Pearson. “2°C is too hot for ice and that overshoot to 2°C will result in huge economic impacts from extensive ice loss; even at 1.5°C, ice is in the danger zone,” he said.
This overshoot could trigger irreversible warming and ice loss with massive economic repercussions. “The costs and uncertainties to the business sector should our current carbon emissions continue will be enormous,” said Pearson. “We are rapidly moving beyond the limits of adaptation for those economic activities reliant on stable coastlines or on water supplies from mountain regions.”
