The carbon price plan is likely to have more of an impact in global climate negotiations than Australia’s ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, international law experts believe.
If the policy measures are passed by Parliament, Australia will head into the next round of United Nations negotiations in Durban in November as one of 31 nations that put a price on carbon.
The Kyoto Protocol expires next year and there is no binding international agreement to replace it, after slow progress at previous UN conferences in Copenhagen, Cancun and Bangkok.
The ratification of the protocol by the former prime minister Kevin Rudd ”did have a significant effect on our standing and negotiating position - this is just as useful, in fact, probably more so,” said Tim Stephens, a lecturer in environmental law at the University of Sydney.
”It lets our voice be heard, and it will be a catalyst for Australia to be taken seriously. It strengthens our hand.
”Until now, we have always been on the back foot in these type of negotiations, because we turn up and say we’ve done nothing and we expect other countries to do something.”
Andrew McIntosh, associate director of the Centre for Climate Law and Policy at the Australian National University, said the carbon price plan put Australia in a key position for the talks.
”I don’t think we should over blow the importance of it, but we are a top 20 emitter, so it is significant,” he said.
”With the introduction of a carbon price and the shift to a carbon trading scheme pretty much ensures that we will get to the target that we commit to.”
A global deal could potentially trigger Australia’s commitment to make greenhouse gas cuts of up to 25 per cent by 2020, but few think that is likely.
The European Union Climate Commissioner, Connie Hedegaard, all but scotched hopes of a breakthrough later this year when speaking at the Major Economies Forum in Brussels. ”The good news is that there is a general recognition of the necessity of a legally binding agreement,” she said.
”The bad news is that no legally binding agreement deal will be done in Durban.”
The chief US climate negotiator, Todd Stern, has also said a binding deal remains remote.
The Treasury modelling accompanying the government’s carbon price plan makes little mention of the possibility of a 25 per cent cut.
Dr McIntosh said an emissions cut target for 2020 of 12 to 15 per cent below Australia’s level in 2000 would be seen as a responsible effort.
”I can’t see any real prospect of Australia pursuing a 25 per cent target for 2020, and the government hasn’t shown any inkling of going for that target,” he said. ”It’s a Clayton’s target if ever there was one.
”We’re certainly now in the lead group in terms of the policies that we have … but I think with a 5 per cent target on 2000 levels by 2020, we are certainly not in the lead group. We are still tethered to this 5 per cent target.”
