Donald Trump’s successful bid for a second term as US president is expected to have a major impact on climate action, both at home and abroad.
Although gaining little attention on the campaign trail, Trump’s environmental views differed starkly from those of his opponent Kamala Harris, who had supported accelerating green projects introduced by her boss, President Joe Biden.
Trump, whose campaign won significant donations from oil companies, has been an outspoken critic of Biden’s climate plans and is expected to pull back from several green commitments.
What is Trump expected to do on climate change?
Trump has promised to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, the international pact to limit average temperature rise to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) and ideally 1.5°C (2.7°F).
Domestically, Trump plans to rescind Biden’s clean energy regulations and has pledged to axe any unspent funds in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), as well a possible end to the bill’s US$7,500 tax credit towards buying an electric vehicle.
The IRA provides billions of dollars in clean energy subsidies and investments to cut planet-heating emissions.
Trump has lambasted the measures as a “Green New Scam”.
Fully repealing the law, however, would require a vote in Congress, a move that analysts say could fall foul of Republicans whose states benefitted from investment and jobs.
What will Trump do on the energy transition?
US production of oil and gas reached record levels under Biden as the president tried to control fuel prices at the pump.
Trump has vowed to further boost fossil-fuel production.
He has also pledged a “National Emergency Declaration” to eradicate bureaucratic hurdles to new drilling, pipelines, refineries, power plants and reactors.
This includes easing permits for drilling on federal land, as well as reauthorising oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska, which was cancelled by Biden.
Trump had promised to revive the coal industry in his first term, but employment in the sector actually fell as power generators turned to natural gas and renewable energy.
Employment in clean energy - including wind, solar, nuclear and battery storage - rose by 142,000 jobs, or 4.2 per cent last year, up from a rise of 3.9 per cent in 2022.
What could Trump’s win mean for global climate action?
As the world’s No. 2 polluter after China, the United States is a key player in global climate politics, and a withdrawal from the Paris Agreement risks undermining efforts to accelerate international climate ambitions.
Trump pulled out of the pact during his first term and a rerun is expected at the outset of his second term, a measure that would take effect in January 2026.
Environmentalists fear a lack of US leadership on climate action could encourage other nations to weaken their efforts.
By contrast, Biden had planned to halve US greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 against 2005 levels, and to reach net zero by 2050.
The United States is also expected to withdraw from international aid commitments for global climate action, such as Biden’s US$500-million pledge for the Amazon rainforest.
Will Trump stop all US climate action?
Separate to federal policies, many US states and local governments have their own climate policies, spanning transport to energy, so many initiatives - such as California’s ambition for 100 per cent clean electricity - should go unscathed.
Along with a dozen other states, California also wants to mandate that 80 per cent of all new vehicles sold in the state be electric by 2035 and no more than 20 per cent plug-in hybrid electric.
Despite close ties with Tesla boss Elon Musk, Trump has said he will try to block the states’ expansion plans for electric vehicles, which requires a waiver from the federal US Environmental Protection Agency.
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