Scientists have estimated that planned cuts in global emissions will fall well short of the level necessary to cap temperature rises at 2 degrees. The shortfall, about 5 gigatonnes a year of CO2 equivalent, is equal to the emissions of all the world’s cars, trucks and buses.
Even then, that outcome is dependent on all countries meeting pledges from last year’s Copenhagen summit. Deeper cuts still would be required to hold temperature rises on the earth’s surface to 1.5 degrees.
The statistic, issued by the UN Environment Program, underscores the monumental task facing the world and negotiators racing to reconcile the disparate needs of 192 nations meeting in Cancun, where world-renowned coral reefs have been endangered by the effects of pollution and warmer water.
The report on the deficiency of emissions cuts is the work of 30 researchers drawn from 25 centres in a variety of countries, including Australia.
Its formal release yesterday coincided with a plea from the UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, for nations to work harder to narrow their differences and reinvigorate momentum in the battle against climate change.
Mr Ban told reporters before a formal session of the Cancun talks: ”There is no single magic solution to climate change. We need to make progress wherever we can.”
Governments are looking to dovetail emission cuts agreed under the Kyoto Protocol with commitments made by countries not bound by its mandate, as well as firming up a package of measures that include financial aid for poor countries trying to adapt to climate change and ways to slow deforestation.
But much of the debate is being conducted through the prism of developing countries versus developed nations, demanding complex tradeoffs.
Negotiations over the logistics of an agreed $US100 billion-a-year of green aid to developing nations are being led by Australia’s Climate Change Minister, Greg Combet, together with the Bangladeshi Environment Minister, Hasan Mahmud, who insisted that the state was the world’s ”most vulnerable country” to climate change.
”Our goal [in Cancun] is to bring forward issues so that we can have a legally binding agreement in Durban [South Africa] next year. On that, I am a little bit more hopeful than I was last week,” said Mr Combet, who with Dr Mahmud is also endeavouring to cement commitments to $US30 billion of so-called ”fast-start” funding to be tapped immediately by poor countries.
Mr Ban said: ”I do not expect governments to reach an all-encompassing global agreement here in Cancun … This is not a sprint, but a marathon. It is important to keep taking determined steps forward.”
The fine balance between success and failure was epitomised by the UN’s ”emissions gap” report, in which its chief scientist found that current pledges for cutting global emissions could take the world 60 per cent of the way towards what was urgently needed to contain temperature rises below 2 degrees.
