Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions hit a record low in the year to March 2010, data showed Tuesday, but emissions may rise this fiscal year despite an expected economic slowdown if the country turns to fossil fuels to make up for lost nuclear power in the wake of last month’s devastating earthquake and tsunami.
The world’s fifth-biggest polluter saw its emissions of global warming gases fall for the second straight year in 2009/10 to a revised 1.209 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent, down 5.6 percent on the year, final government data showed. Preliminary data issued in December had shown a 5.7 percent decline on the year.
Tuesday’s data showed emissions were also 4.1 percent lower than in 1990/1991, when Japan began compiling data on greenhouse gas emissions. It was the first time emissions fell below the 1.261 billion tonnes recorded that year, reflecting the weakness in economic activity since the financial crisis in late 2008.
Japan’s goal under the Kyoto Protocol is to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 1.186 billion tonnes a year on average over the five years to March 2013, down 6 percent from 1990/1991 levels.
If Tokyo factors in planned emissions cuts following its investments in clean energy steps abroad as well as forest conservation at home per year, as permitted under the Kyoto agreement, 2009/2010’s emissions were down 9.5 percent from the base year.
But this fiscal year utilities may have to step up their thermal power usage to make up for lost nuclear power due to the tsunami-triggered crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in northeast Japan.
There is growing public concern about safety in the wake of the nuclear crisis, which could affect Japanese energy policy in the longer term.
More than half of Japan’s nuclear power capacity is currently offline as quake-hit plants remain shut. It is also expected to take longer than usual for utilities to conduct maintenance work and check safety after the quake.
“It is difficult to forecast the post-quake impact on emissions,” said an official at the environment ministry, which compiles the emissions data.
“One factor boosting emissions is the usage of fossil fuels as an alternative. But we also have to think about the impact of energy saving and of the renewable energy sector, which is growing,” the official said.
Tuesday’s data showed Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions peaked at 1.365 billion tonnes in the financial year that ended in March 2008, one year before the Kyoto Protocol period started.
