The United States’ waning political support for climate action has dominated the global media cycle in the past month, leading to worries that it will undermine global efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions. But “ultimately it is nature that will call the shots,” said Singapore’s climate envoy and longest-serving central banker Ravi Menon.
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Menon was weighing in on which of three recent global developments would affect the momentum of climate action in the most significant way: US President Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement, the reduction of solar power’s global average cost to half the cost of fossil fuel options, or how average global temperature crossed the threshold of 1.5°C last year.
Speaking at an event hosted by state investor Temasek and consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) on Friday, he reminded the audience of finance and sustainability professionals that beyond the Trump-led climate retreat or the encouraging cost trajectory of clean energy technologies, nature is the main impetus for ambitious climate action.
“The timeline is not set by electoral cycles or cost curves. It is set by nature,” said Menon.
“The most direct indicator of the growing risk facing our planet is temperature,” he said, citing the more frequent and intense storms, floods, heatwaves and droughts wrought by the record-breaking temperatures of the last decade.
A recent study estimated that Asia alone lost at least US$2 trillion in damages from extreme weather in the past three decades.
Menon said there is growing awareness about how rising temperatures are unleashing more frequent and intense storms, floods, heatwaves and droughts. Yet the far more worrying impacts on nature are seldom reported by the media, he added.
“The Arctic is heating up almost four times faster than the global average, creating vicious feedback loops with climate change,” said Menon.
In particular, he cited how Greenland – home to the second largest ice sheet in the world – is losing 30 million tonnes of ice every hour. Scientists estimate that if the Danish autonomous territory’s ice sheet completely melts and flows into the ocean, global sea level would rise by about seven metres – which would put many small island nations under water – and even cause the Earth to rotate more slowly.
Presumably referencing Trump’s reiterated desire to acquire Arctic territory for national security purposes, Menon quipped, “I don’t know why you would want to buy Greenland.”
The thawing of Arctic permafrost – ground that has remained frozen for over two years – also speeds up the release of methane, which the US Environmental Protection Agency estimates to be 28 times as potent as carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere.
Short-term headwinds
While nature presents the greatest impetus to act, Menon acknowledged that it would be impossible to completely disregard political headwinds in the short term.
“We cannot rule out some countries lowering their climate ambitions because of the position taken by the US,” he said.
Menon cited how only 13 out of 195 countries – Singapore being the only Asian nation among them – submitted their 2035 climate pledges to the United Nations by the 10 February deadline. China and India, two of the world’s largest emitters of greenhouse gases, were among those who have yet to submit their latest targets.
Earlier this month, coal-dependent Indonesia – ranked fourth globally in carbon emissions – had also questioned why it should comply with the Paris climate accords since the US has dropped out.
“Countries and companies alike have to carefully assess the global political backdrop, understand the nuances, and decide where the opportunities and risks lie in climate action,” he said.
Menon also stressed that economics must continue to shape medium-term investment decisions.
The cost trends for more mature clean energy technologies, such as solar, battery storage and electric vehicles, have been positive in the last decade – to the point where China’s clean energy sectors contributed to a tenth of its gross domestic product in 2024.
“Notwithstanding political exhortations to ‘drill, baby, drill’, it is the falling relative price of renewables that will drive investment decisions in power generation,” said Menon, bringing up a Trump slogan synonymous with his plan to boost fossil fuel extraction.
However, Menon acknowledged that it is concerning that the costs of several key breakthrough technologies that countries and companies are relying on to reach their decarbonisation goals have yet to fall significantly. These include low-carbon hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, as well as sustainable aviation and marine fuels.
In his budget speech last week, Singapore prime minister and finance minister Lawrence Wong downplayed the potential of hydrogen as a solution for domestic clean energy development in the land-scarce nation due to commercial challenges. He spoke about Singapore’s intention to look into how to deploy nuclear power, given significant advancements in small modular reactors.
“Nature will eventually force the world to do what it has been delaying for too long – decisive actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Menon, adding that it appears “highly unlikely” that the world will see an orderly transition that limits temperature rise to 1.5°C, in line with the Paris accord.
“A more likely scenario is a disorderly transition with accelerated climate action in the outer years when developments in nature become too serious to ignore… The result could well be a low-carbon yet climate-impaired world.”
