In his third climate update, the government’s climate change adviser, Ross Garnaut, reports that global emissions are still projected to double between 2005 and 2030 without climate change mitigation measures.
Despite the global financial crisis pushing down emissions growth in developed countries, this will be offset by rising emissions from developing countries.
Professor Garnaut says developing countries will contribute 70 per cent of global business-as-usual emissions at 2030, compared to 63 per cent under the 2008 projection.
“China’s and India’s share in global emissions would be 41 and 11 per cent respectively, both up by three percentage points from the review’s projections,” Professor Garnaut says.
“All of the increase in global business-as-usual emissions is now projected to come from developing countries.”
The combined emissions of developed countries, however, are projected to remain at approximately the same level between 2005 and 2030.
Growth in energy use among developing countries is also expected to grow strongly at 4.7 per cent, slightly up from the 2008 projections.
But energy intensity among developed countries has fallen to a 0.2 per cent annual increase over the period 2005 to 2030, down from the 1.1 per cent increase predicted in the 2008 review.
Projections of carbon intensity remain unchanged since the 2008 review, with India on track to experience the fastest rate of increase in carbon intensity due to its reliance on coal.
The report was released this morning in Melbourne at an event hosted by the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
The update is the third of eight papers that will be released by Professor Garnaut, revising his 2008 work in light of new developments.
