Indonesia is moving forward with a plan to build a 700-kilometre sea wall stretching from Cilegon, Banten, to Gresik, East Java. The project is expected to take 20-40 years to complete at a cost of around US$50 billion.
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President Prabowo Subianto has claimed that the project will protect Java’s northern coast from worsening tidal flooding and land subsidence. The northern part of Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital city, has been sinking by up to 25 centimetres a year.
Indonesia’s presidential envoy for climate and energy, Hashim Sujono Djojohadikusumo, has said that the project will protect rice fields along Java’s northern coast, which aligns with Prabowo’s priority policy to safeguard food security. He noted that the idea for a sea wall was conceived in 1994 but has still not been executed.
Coordinating minister for economic affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, has said that the first phase of the wall, which stretches from Jakarta to Cirebon, West Java, will eventually be integrated with the flood and tidal control embankment in Tambaklorok, Semarang, Central Java, which has already been built.
To finance the project, the government has been actively exploring alternative funding sources, including public-private partnerships (PPP) that bring in foreign investors. However, questions remain over its feasibility and long-term impact on coastal communities.
False solution that prioritises profit?
According to the non-profit Indonesian Forum for the Environment (WALHI), while the sea wall may provide a short-term solution, the government should pursue flood mitigation strategies that protect coastal communities over the long term.
“This technical solution is not likely to be implemented for decades. What we need is a recovery strategy instead that ensures fair spatial planning while prioritising the most affected communities,” said Suci Fitria Tanjung, executive director of WALHI Jakarta.
The land subsidence that has afflicted Java’s northern coast is largely the result of past policies that carved up the region for industry, which has drained the water supply. The area has five special economic zones and 70 industrial zones and is dissected by logistics infrastructure. The over-extraction of groundwater has put 50 million people at risk of water scarcity and could cost 20 per cent of the region’s economic growth.
However experts have warned against implementing water management solutions without engaging with affected stakeholders. During Jakarta’s sea wall construction in 2014, local fishermen raised concerns about having to fish further offshore. However, the government did not respond to their pleas, and the project continued, Suci noted.
WALHI has reported that at least 24,000 fishermen in Jakarta have been displaced as a result of the project. If the sea wall extends across Java’s northern coast, many more will be forced to move, Suci warned.
“The government did not involve communities in meaningful participation. Women, vulnerable groups, and people with disabilities need to be included in the design and evaluation of the project. Their needs must be understood,” she said.
As the government seeks foreign investment to fund the project, observers are afraid that profit will be prioritised over climate and community protection.
Jakarta has been subsiding for decades, yet the government continues to allow commercial projects to be built along the coastline. “The government has prioritised business over sustainable development,” said Dr. M. Rizal Taufikurahman, head of the Center for Macroeconomics and Finance at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF).
In 2023, Java’s northern coast contributed 34.7 per cent of Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) through the fisheries, transport, and tourism sectors – three industries critical to the national economy. This economic potential is expected to be a major selling point for investors in the sea wall.
“This is why we call the sea wall project is a false climate solution. There is a hidden agenda behind it. The investment agenda is far greater than the efforts to protect communities from climate change,” said Suci.
Debt trap and geopolitical risks
The government has yet to publish a blueprint for the sea wall’s construction, and a feasibility study is ongoing. However, Prabowo has been actively looking for investors since late last year, with China and Japan among the interested parties, according to local media reports.
“The government must carefully assess whether investors are actually interested in the giant sea wall. They will need to calculate their business prospects. What will they gain over the next 40 years? Where will the return on investment come from?” said Rizal.
With uncertainty looming over the financing of the wall, experts predict that investors will likely prefer purchasing government bonds over directly financing the project, especially as previous government projects have been deemed unprofitable.
The most feasible option, given current economic conditions, is taking on debt. Investors need clarity, if they expect returns from future developments such as hotels, offices, or industrial sites, the returns will only come in the long term after the infrastructure is completed,” explained Bhima Yudhistira, executive director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies.
As of October 2024, Indonesia’s foreign debt has reached US$425 billion and is expected to rise further with the sea wall project. Instead of generating profits and boosting the economy, experts warn that it could push Indonesia deeper into debt.
If Indonesia cannot not repay its national debt, there is a lingering fear that the government may have to provide alternative guarantees, such as government incentives for industrial or extractive concessions, or even natural resources. Some fear that foreign debt could affect Indonesia’s geopolitical independence.
“The giant sea wall could serve as a proxy for the interests of China, Japan, and Western countries. If Indonesia secures loans from one of these countries, it could risk losing its political neutrality,” suggested Bhima.
Inequal development, Java-centric infrastructure
With billions of dollars at stake, experts argue that the government should focus on equal development beyond Java. As of January 2025, the island is home to 153.8 million people, making it the most populated island in the world and Indonesia’s economic focal point.
Former president Joko Widodo’s initial plan to develop a new capital city in East Kalimantan was expected to nudge more investment and people into the province and speed up the balancing of infrastructure development outside of Java.
However, with the uncertain future of Nusantara in Prabowo’s hands, there is growing concern that Indonesia will remain heavily focused on Java for economic and infrastructure projects.
“Why should investments continue to be developed in Java? Why not build them in Sumatra or Kalimantan, in the new capital?” said Rizal.
Instead of spending billions on a sea wall without clear financing plans, experts propose that industrial zones are relocated to other islands where new economic centres can be developed.
“We could build a new spatial planning system with new economic clusters that are far more advanced, which could also strengthen the economy and promote more balanced development across the archipelago,” said Rizal.
