The 42nd Asean Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM) being held from 24-27 September in Vientiane is the highest policy making body in energy cooperation in the region. It plays a key role in politically endorsing and providing feedback and direction for the implementation of the Asean Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2016-2025, the region’s blueprint for decarbonisation and energy integration.
A key component of the APAEC is the Asean Power Grid (APG) project, which aims to connect the national energy systems of the region. While it plays a necessary and important role, AMEM is the exclusive domain of political and bureaucratic elites. Thus, regional energy issues are for the most part far removed from considerations of the grassroots in Southeast Asia. A deeper understanding of grassroots perceptions can inform policy processes for driving the development of flexible and decentralised renewable energy systems that are sensitive to the needs of multiple sectors within the region’s communities.
Given this context, the 2024 Southeast Asia Climate Outlook gives insights into what Southeast Asian citizens think AMEM and other Asean bodies should prioritise in terms of decarbonisation efforts, and the associated challenges of transition. Some 2,931 Southeast Asian respondents from all ten Asean member states completed the survey from July to August 2024.
The survey shows that 48.4 per cent of regional respondents believe that the biggest priority for Asean in accelerating a clean energy transition is the development of regional energy infrastructures (Figure 1). Respondents from Indonesia (65.6 per cent), Laos (50.7 per cent) and Malaysia (50.2 per cent) are more likely to recommend that Asean focus on regional infrastructures. These views show that opinions about the positive economic and environmental impact of interconnections are no longer confined to technical reports, but are at the forefront of how people envision regional decarbonisation efforts.
Figure 1: The image shows the top three options ranked by survey respondents that would accelerate a clean energy transition in Southeast Asia. Image: 2024 Southeast Asia Climate Outlook/ Fulcrum
Much has been achieved in terms of developing regional infrastructures. Currently, nine out of 18 key interconnection projects of the APG have been completed and most trade takes place at the bilateral level. This month, Southeast Asia’s first multilateral power initiative, the Laos-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore Power Integration Project (LTMS-PIP) has been extended by another two years, and power trade increased from up to 100 megawatts (MW) to a maximum of 200 MW. Singapore raised its target of importing low carbon electricity from 4 GW to 6 GW by 2035, further enhancing the prospects of subsea cables between the republic and Indonesia, Cambodia and Vietnam. The 41st AMEM last year endorsed the proposed interconnection project between Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines (BIMP-PIP) as well as subsea cables connecting mainland with maritime Southeast Asia.
Another 48.2 per cent of respondents believe that Asean should focus on providing financial incentives and support for renewable energy projects and 43.7 per cent prioritised the development of a common Asean clean energy fund. The lack of finance remains a key impediment to decarbonisation efforts – the region invests around US$30 billion annually in clean energy – compared to actual requirements of US$230 billion to 2050. An ISEAS report on the APG found that including financial institutions in the Working Groups of interconnection projects can enable the use of financial tools such as green bonds and sustainability-linked loans. Financial institutions can also facilitate negotiations between public sector officials and ensure that communities benefit from regional energy projects.
Around two-fifths of regional respondents believe that Asean should facilitate the training of energy officials and support the adoption of a renewable energy agreement. Both issues are given due importance at the Asean level: the Asean Centre for Energy has hosted multiple training and capacity building programmes to increase the skills of energy officials on topics such as pumped hydro storage, while the Asean Power Grid Consultative Committee is leading the development of the successor agreement to the original Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on the APG, due to expire in December 2025.
Yet, the same ISEAS report indicates that the lack of technical skills continues to undermine energy cooperation, particularly in the key areas of harmonisation of grid codes, digitalisation and cyber security. The report also found that a lack of political trust and high levels of resource nationalism constrain the development of legally binding energy agreements
The respondents also shared their perceptions of challenges that undermine decarbonisation with the lack of research and development (R&D), with technology and expertise seen as the biggest obstacle (Figure 2). This challenge receives the highest level of recognition by respondents from Laos (26.7 per cent) and Vietnam (25.6 per cent), where the expansion of renewables is impeded by technical capacities of grids and storage systems. The second and third most important challenges are the lack of private and public sector support (16.8 per cent) and insufficient financial resources (16.5 per cent).
Figure 2: The chart shows what Southeast Asians perceive to be the biggest obstacles to dearbonisation . Image: 2024 Southeast Asia Climate Outlook/ Fulcrum
Interestingly, while some studies highlight the absence of political will as the biggest obstacle to decarbonisation, only 13 per cent of respondents saw this as a major challenge. Another surprising finding is that just 5.3 per cent of respondents listed geopolitical issues as an impediment to decarbonisation, despite the impact of Russia’s war on Ukraine, now in its third year, and the differences between the US and China on global cooperation on energy transition.
At the country level, other domestic priorities are seen as the biggest challenge to decarbonisation by respondents from Thailand, while in the Philippines, the lack of alternative energy resources is seen as the most significant impediment, despite the country’s substantial wind, geothermal and hydropower potential.
The perceptions described above demonstrate that while the region’s citizens see multiple opportunities for Asean to drive decarbonisation, they are realistic about existing challenges. While leadership at the regional level by elites is crucial for accelerating decarbonisation, the perceptions of Southeast Asian citizens in the survey can provide clues on public support for key interventions on decarbonisation, such as the development of regional infrastructures and meeting financing gaps. They also underscore the need for political leaders to address existing misperceptions among the grassroots regarding resource availability and the impact of geopolitics on the region’s energy transition.
Mirza Sadaqat Huda is Lead Researcher in the Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme, ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute.
This article was first published in Fulcrum, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s blogsite.
